Panettone and Pandoro, positive forecast for Christmas sales

For Christmas 2024, industry and distribution are playing fast and loose. Orders for panettone and pandoro are placed early. A way to protect themselves from last minute unforeseen events, due to the period that is always very nervous, with the risk of delays in deliveries and consequent lack of sales. Which for this end of 2024 are nevertheless expected to be particularly positive, even if no one is officially unbalanced the growth in sales should be around 4% for traditional and 2% for filled. Market analyses announce good spending intentions on the part of Italians, a fact that could even improve on last year's results: according to data from Unione Italiana Food, panettone saw a production of 37,647 tonnes (+3.5% over 2022) in volume and a value of 237.9 million euros (+6.5%), while pandoro recorded 32,073 tonnes (+4.1%) in volume and 165.2 million euros (+5.9%) in value.

"At the end of November," confirms Marco Brandani, Managing Director of Maina Panettoni, "we are at about 60% of orders and it is difficult to make certain forecasts, but the signs are all there. We are talking about a volume of almost 95 million cakes, nationwide, that are purchased from 8 December onwards'. Even for Le Tre Marie, a Galbusera brand, it promises to be a year with a plus sign. "We have already exceeded last year's orders," confirms Roberto Serra, Galbusera's managing director, "and we still have an estimate of at least another 2 thousand quintals. This advance in the season is very positive because it allows us to plan production more accurately, reducing the risk of unsold products'.

Casting a shadow on the festive mood, however, are still the raw material tensions that have characterised the last three years. In particular sugar, cocoa, but above all butter, the essential ingredient of these two products. "Butter destined for companies," confirms Paolo Isolati, Bauli's board member, "has reached levels never seen in the past, for 37 years, having far exceeded 11 euros per kilo. The companies and distribution are trying to moderate these increases and I believe that at consumption there will be no major deviations from the previous year. A year in which, in any case, we had already absorbed the increase in value on the final price'.

Increases also for raisins and chocolate, which not even price adjustments on the finished product will be able to recover. "This year, too, we have absorbed most of the price increases so as not to upset the price thresholds for consumers," Serra specifies. And like him all the companies in the sector, mostly small and medium-sized companies forced to suffer these fluctuations in order not to lose buyers.

This Christmas, however, will also be the year of the relaunch of well-known names and some brand repositioning. For the market bigwig Bauli, it is a time of great ferment, starting with the new communication and ending with the repositioning of the Motta brand in a premium key and with a totally renewed range.