Pasta, record exports pending resolution of the tariffs issue

While the shadow of protectionism stretches over the Italian agro-food industry and the possible impact of new US duties is being reckoned with, Made in Italy pasta exports have had a record year. The symbolic production of the Italian agro-industry closed 2024 with a 9.3% increase in exported volumes, over 2.5 million tons, the second best result ever after 2020, the year of the Covid and the consequent lockdown that had sent world consumption soaring. On the other hand, it is an absolute record for foreign sales, which exceeded 4.3 billion, with a growth of 5.1%, more moderate than that of volumes due to a reduction in average prices of about 4%.

In the geography of shipments, it is worth noting the growth in sales in the United States (+21.5%), which is by far the largest market among non-EU countries with 327 thousand tonnes and a turnover of almost 700 million, and in Canada (+13.7%). In general, sales outside Europe are running almost twice as fast as the EU average (+12.3% versus +6.6%). In the Far East, double-digit increases in China (+18.7%) and South Korea (+25.7%) stand out, while Japan (a market that with 70 thousand tonnes is worth more than the first two put together) posted a less brilliant but still positive performance in 2024 (+3.6%). Among the EU countries, Germany, the first outlet market in absolute terms with over 485 thousand tonnes sold (+9.8%), Spain (+13%), France (+5%) did well, and Belgium, an important market that lost 11.7% of volumes, did poorly.

While waiting to understand the real impact of the new duties after the 90-day break granted by Trump, it seems a foregone conclusion that the 2024 record will not be broken this year. "With almost 700 million, the United States is worth 17 per cent of total exports, duties on pasta are already there - stresses Cristiano Laurenza, secretary general of pasta makers of Unione Italiana Food -, of two types: anti-dumping duties, which do not depend on Trump and are applied regardless on the basis of a complex calculation method, and the so-called anti-subsidy duties, applied on the assumption that companies receive subsidies in which tax deductions are perhaps also included, updated every year and today at around 6 per cent. Now we are also concerned about EU countermeasures, because they would affect high-quality North American wheat, which would have an impact on supply but also on international prices and a domino effect on other raw materials'.

The delocalisation risk, explains Laurenza, 'could only exist in the medium to long term with structural countermeasures that are not on the agenda. Pasta is an affordable and sustainable product that paradoxically could pay the highest price for duties. Escalation must now be avoided'.

The decision of the US administration, adds Andrea Valente, president of Italmopa, the association of the milling industry that buys wheat and transforms it into flour and semolina for pasta factories, 'affects the domestic milling industry both directly with the application of duties on our flours and semolina, and indirectly in that these duties will also be imposed on other products for which flours and semolina are the main ingredient. Exports to the US of flour and semolina, Italmopa recalls, grew by 24% in 2024 and 135% in the last ten years.