Towards manoeuvre

Pensioners and workers in the flat-rate scheme: +40% in five years

The confirmation of the fixed income threshold at 35,000 euro keeps the doors of the flat tax, chosen by 194,000 people, open in 2026 as well

Seventyfour - stock.adobe.com

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The number of employees and pensioners with VAT registration under the flat-rate scheme has grown by 40% in the last five years. 194,000 (153,000 workers and 41,000 pensioners) will be counted in the tax returns filed in 2024. Part-time employees working a second job, workers rounding up their salaries, pensioners working as consultants or freelancers: together they make up 10% of the taxpayers applying the flat tax.

They will all benefit from the rule included in the draft budget law, which confirms for 2026 the raising to 35,000 euro of the threshold of employee or assimilated income that allows one to remain in the lump sum. Under the ordinary rules, in fact, the limit is 30,000 euro and was raised to 35,000 euro already in the manoeuvre for 2025.

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The way the regulation is formulated, the income verification is to be done on the previous year's income. Therefore, to give an example, someone who receives a 32,000 euro pension in 2025, without the intervention of the Budget Bill, would be destined to exit the forfait from 2026. If Parliament approves the regulation, however, he will be able to remain in the facilitated regime with a 15% substitute tax (or 5% for new economic activities).

The pull of membership

The growth in the number of employees and flat-tax pensioners has not been linear over the years. Also due to regulatory changes.

For 2019, Finance statistics show a leap in both categories, with workers rising by 50% to 110 thousand and pensioners more than tripling to 28 thousand. An increase due to the cancellation of the income limit by that year's financial manoeuvre, which also raised to 65 thousand euro the threshold of revenues and VAT-registered remuneration not to be exceeded to remain in the facilitated regime (yellow-green government Conte-1). In practice: after the law made the salary or pension received in 2018 'non-blocking', many taxpayers entered the lump sum in 2019 and accounted for it in the tax return filed the following year.

After just one year, the 30,000 euro limit was reintroduced in 2020, under the Conte-2 government with a yellow majority. The result in the declarations submitted in 2021 is evident: -2.7% of employees and even -16.4% of pensioners in lump sum. A sign that among the latter there tend to be those with high social security checks, while among employees there are relatively more taxpayers with under 30,000 (or part-time) work income.

Since 2021, the growth in membership has been continuous, with declarations submitted last year showing an increase of 38.8% compared to the 2019 peak for employees and 44% for pensioners (the Finance Ministry's data, in addition to the flat-rate scheme, also include the old minimums, but their weight is now negligible). This growth has probably been driven by the gradual spread of the flat-rate scheme, rather than by the effect of regulatory changes such as the raising of the income and remuneration ceiling for remaining in the scheme, which was triggered in 2023, from 65,000 to 85,000 euro.

To get an idea of the success of the flat tax in recent years, one only has to look at the weight of adhesions on new VAT registrations by natural persons: in the first six months of this year it reached 72.2%, a record since the regime has existed. And the total number of flat-tax holders - taking into account new openings - is more than 2 million.

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The effect of the 35,000 euro limit

To measure the impact of the increase of the limit to EUR 35,000, we will have to wait for the statistics on the 2025 tax returns. However, it is easy to foresee an increase. Because the higher threshold - in addition to having saved some taxpayers just below EUR 30,000 who had an increase or an adjustment to inflation - also opened the doors of the lump sum even further (in the EUR 30,000 to 35,000 bracket fall about 11% of workers and 7% of pensioners).

The manoeuvre is now under parliamentary scrutiny. But there will be no room for another change repeatedly demanded by the League: the increase of the general threshold of revenue and remuneration to 100,000 euro. As explained by the Mef in a question time in recent months, it would require the amendment of a European directive (2006/112/EC).

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