Pensions, from severance pay to revaluations and quotas: here are the latest hypotheses for the 2025 manoeuvre

The launch of the manoeuvre is still about a month and a half away, but the list of possible adjustments is already starting to thin out. Apart from the chapter on public employment, where the plan that is being defined to shore up the workforce will also have an impact at the social security level, the government's technicians are focusing on the issue of the so-called 'social security coverage' of young people, which will have to be guaranteed by a more massive 'contribution' of supplementary social security, in addition to the compulsory one. With this in mind, the executive is thinking of triggering a new intervention on the severance pay, which in the case of newly hired employees for a slice (20-25%) would be mandatorily allocated to pension funds, along the lines of the proposal launched by the League in recent weeks. For all other workers, on the other hand, a new 'silence-consent' phase would be initiated (probably of six months) to voluntarily allocate the severance pay to complementary social security, as also suggested by the Minister of Labour, Marina Calderone.

Still on the 'young' side, some other pension measures may arrive. But on the early exit channel for contributory workers (those who have been in employment since 1 January 1996) with 64 years and 20 years of contributions there should be no news: the 'threshold' amount of the treatment, provided for using this route, should remain fixed at three times the social allowance (2.8 times for women and 2.6 for those with two or more children), as established by the last budget law.

The government is also inclined to confirm in 2025 the mechanism of revaluation of pensions by bands, which was introduced for the two-year period 2023-24, thus not reverting to the 'stepped' mechanism. In this case, however, there seems to be a new squeeze on higher pensions: full indexation will continue to be guaranteed only for pensions up to four times the minimum. For low pensions, the super-indexation granted this year will continue and, if resources are available, some further adjustments are not excluded.

The decision on flexible exit will only be taken after the presentation of the Budget Structure Plan, expected in mid-September. There will be no wide-ranging interventions in the next budget law, but the government has not given up on the idea of a comprehensive reorganisation of the social security system. 'Pension reform remains a goal that we will realise by the end of the legislature,' assures Labour Undersecretary Claudio Durigon. At the moment, the most popular hypothesis is to confirm even in 2025 the instruments in operation this year in the current version, such as Quota 103 and Ape sociale, perhaps with some minor revisions. Any measures on early retirement will in any case be tied to the adoption of the contributory calculation method.