Pharmaceuticals, energy and aerospace the sectors most exposed to US imports

The reaction, as is now clear, could be unpredictable. But the possible imposition of European duties on US goods, in quantitative terms for Italy, would have a circumscribed impact, heavy only for a few areas, including pharmaceuticals. An analysis of Istat data reveals a concept that has been known for years, with the United States representing for Italy the largest trade surplus of any single country. What Trump calls 'a rip-off' is actually the greater capacity of our companies compared to those in the US to produce quality products, often unique, resulting in a clear divide in import and export values.

The current orientation of Brussels is wait-and-see and in any case more inclined to hit services. But what would happen if the European Union decided to 'tariff' star and stripes products? Against a tricolor export of 65 billion, our direct annual purchases from Washington are a little less than 26 billion, in general they represent 4.6% of our imports, a share that is almost a third compared to the weight that the USA has on our foreign sales. However, this average is underestimated, bearing in mind that in terms of imports from Washington, one must also consider as Italian 'pertinence' part of the 68 billion purchased in the USA from Holland and the 31 from Belgium, countries that in reality represent sorting hubs for subsequent re-exports in other directions, including Italy. The average of direct purchases in Italy is however shifted upwards by a single sector, pharmaceuticals.

Because if it is true that the many multinationals and Italian bigwigs present in our country export huge values to the United States, more than ten billion euros, with 7.3 billion in purchases Washington's weight on our sector import is significant, close to 18%. The main share is not on medicines in the strict sense (1.3 billion) but mainly on basic preparations (six billion, mostly hormones and derivatives), but in any case it is likely that the effect of duties here could be an increase in the price of some products in pharmacies. Behind the pharma sector, the top products by value in purchases are in the area of energy, particularly oil (2.6 billion, almost 10% of imported crude oil) and gas, with purchases amounting to 1.7 billion, almost 8% of the total, two points up on 2022 ). Right behind this we find another strategic sector, aeronautics, where the role of the United States is decisive with 1.5 billion in purchases, but above all with 35% of the total weight on our sectoral imports. Elsewhere the values are small, with figures well below 1 billion, although in some areas the relative weight is by no means marginal, such as measuring equipment (over 10%) or turbines, with 695 million out of an amount of 1.95 billion.

In consumer products, there is a clear relative weight of whisky. The absolute value in the distilled spirits category is not large, limited to EUR 251 million, but worth a quarter of the total. Another large weight is in dried fruit, 400 million out of the two billion imported, or soya beans (329 million, one third of the total import). Elsewhere the values are instead small, with minimal shares in food, as well as in textiles-clothing. Also bearing in mind that by now, even when buying clearly US brands in shops (think footwear or jeans), production often arrives from Asia, landing for example in Rotterdam. With the Netherlands, which not by chance have huge export values towards Italy, reaching over 36 billion euro, in addition to importing two and a half times more directly from the USA than ours. There are also small incoming shares for cars, with direct imports amounting to just 0.2% of the total, only 86 million euro. EU duties on US cars would therefore in direct terms have a limited impact on consumers.