Pnrr, closer to 2030 targets but a gap of 20 billion remains

Last months of life for the Pnrr and it is already time to take stock. The investments shorten the distance of Italia from the goals of the 2030 Agenda, but they do not reset it. And above all they do not do so in the same way everywhere: in some territories the projects financed have accelerated the path towards the social, health and environmental targets; in other territories, even after 2026, there will remain a wide gap to be covered with new investments. According to the latest monitoring of the Alliance for Sustainable Development (ASVIS) on the impact of the NRP - presented last Friday at the CNEL - the final bill is close to extra 20 billion euros. A figure needed to enable regions to meet the 11 sustainable development goals selected by ASviS among the quantitative targets defined by law (to be reached by 2026 or 2030). These include, for example, one community house for every 50,000 inhabitants; one community hospital for every 100,000 inhabitants; nurseries for 33 per cent of children aged 0-3 years; beds for 18 per cent of enrolled university students; home care for 10 per cent of the over-65s; school drop-outs under 9 per cent; zero-emission bus fleet.

The results do not reflect the North-South divide. Among the territories where the contribution of the NRP appears most effective are Molise, Basilicata, Piedmont and Calabria. For example, the residual need to reach the analysed targets in Molise is among the lowest, 41.9 million euro: the Region, thanks to the Pnrr, has almost hit the targets on houses and community hospitals, nursery schools and scholarships, while for university housing it is estimated that another 15.2 million is needed and the conversion of the bus fleet needs to be completed (for a total of 20.4 million). In Basilicata, too, the impact of the NRP has been particularly strong, with targets almost reached on home care, kindergartens, and combating school dropout.

Calabria, although starting from fragile conditions, with the Plan's resources should achieve the required results for community houses, crèches, and the strengthening of employment centres; and with only 410 million euro more (58% of what has already been invested) it could reach the targets by 2030. The picture is more articulated in Piedmont, where the NRP makes it possible to reach the target on community homes, consolidate coverage on kindergartens and scholarships, and almost completely reduce (+56%) the gap on home care. But three chasms remain: 452.4 million are still needed for the renewal of the bus fleet, 305.9 million for university housing and 200.4 million for community hospitals (for a residual need of another 1.15 billion).

By 2030 the standard envisages, in fact, one community hospital for every 100,000 inhabitants: according to the report's calculations, in Piedmont in 2021 the endowment covered just 12% of the optimal target, and the NRP's investments will contribute another 20 percentage points, leaving 68% of the requirement still unmet. This target, specifically, was reached only by Veneto and Marche, while Piedmont, Lombardy and most of the South remain far behind. More generally, Latium and Lombardy lead the remaining requirement (respectively 3.26 and 3.21 billion euro still needed to meet the targets). In all areas of the country, the real bottleneck seems to be throttling green mobility and university housing, which are behind in almost all regions. More critical is the situation in Campania and Sicily, where the NRP narrows the gap, but fails to compensate for earlier delays, and the remaining needs to meet the 11 targets remain significant, amounting to EUR 2.2 billion and EUR 1.8 billion respectively. In Campania, the delays are concentrated on university housing (764 million still needed to bring the supply of beds to the target) and school dropout; in Sicily, those related to school dropout, community hospitals, home care and childcare services weigh heavily.

 In summary, the regional numbers in the latest ASviS report on the Pnrr tell two truths. The first is that the NRP has already changed the country's trajectory: at the national level, for example, the new places in childcare services bring almost all the Regions towards the target of 33% coverage, except in Campania and Sicily; the Plan is also decisive in many territories for tutoring against school drop-outs and for the strengthening of employment centres. The second is that on some structural issues (such as university housing, sustainable mobility and community hospitals) there is still a long way to go. If the goal is really to arrive at 2030 with a credible reduction in territorial gaps, the NRP cannot therefore remain a one-off intervention.