Pre-tariffs stocks save this year's exports: the impact will be in 2026

Despite tariffs and, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Italian food exports could close the year without any particular negative repercussions. And this especially thanks to the real boom in purchases of wine and food made in Italy made by American importers before the introduction of tariffs by President Trump. A projection to this effect was released in recent days by Nomisma regarding wine alone. And a similar estimate is also contained in the economic analysis released by the Federalimentare research office to its associates.

"It is estimated," writes the study office of the Association of Italian Food Industries, "that in the last five months of the year the turnover achieved by exports of our "food and beverage" will not be significantly affected, but will slow down its tendential growth rate compared to the same months in 2024, approaching parity. All in all, the +8.7% increase in exports to the US market in the first four months of 2025 (driven by the stockpiling by US importers, ed.) should gradually lose momentum, leaving only a few points on the ground in the final balance.

Danger averted then? More likely the problems are only postponed. "The export figures for the sector recorded in the first four months of the year," comments the president of Federalimentare, Paolo Mascarino, "are influenced by a stockpiling dynamic on the part of US importers. This buying rush, which is greater than real needs, will offset the effect of tariffs, the full impact of which, however, we will only be able to read next year. I am sure,' Mascarino continues, 'that Italian entrepreneurs will show their usual resilience by diversifying exports to other countries. However, it is important to be realistic. It is not plausible to think that we can replace the US market any time soon, and access to new markets will require a strategic commitment and medium to long lead times.

The main lever to activate, in this complex scenario, is undoubtedly the strengthening of promotional actions on the most promising markets, supported by a unified Country System strategy. With this in mind, we warmly welcome the new structure of the Farnesina, which with the recent reform has strengthened its role in supporting growth and businesses'.

'The real tariffs-related penalty,' noted the Federalimentare study office, 'will be linked to the brake on the "expansive capacity" of food exports across the Atlantic. And this is not a minimalist forecast. On the contrary, it foreshadows an important strategic damage. Suffice it to think that, in the last decade, the overall growth of Italian food industry exports was +109.1% and was driven by the growth of exports to the United States, which in the same period recorded +160.6%. Tariffs will therefore penalise this propulsive thrust'.