Professionals, confidence in the economy and employment in free fall

The confidence index of professionals, between February and April 2026, dropped drastically from -9.4 to -32.5. The main worries are geopolitical tensions and international economic uncertainty: international dynamics are not perceived as distant elements, but as factors capable of directly affecting the economic and employment outlook. The deterioration in confidence, in fact, is closely linked to the start of the conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This was revealed by the survey conducted by the Osservatorio delle libere professioni (the confederation of trade unions of the liberal professions), which edited the second edition of the Index, calculated as the average of the balances between favourable and unfavourable responses of professionals on expectations regarding the general trend of the Italian economy and employment in the next three months.

The most negative values are observed in scientific and technical professional activities (-44.9) and among dentists (-43.1). Labour consultants, although registering a worsening, present less critical levels (-23.4), but professionals in the economic-financial field are the least concerned (-11.9). The climate of distrust shows a worsening in both the female and male components of the sample, but more pessimistic expectations are confirmed in the female segment. Compared to -30.8 among men, the figure for women is -35.4.

The youngest, up to 44 years of age, show greater security for the future and the mistrust index for this demographic group stops at -28.4. It is the middle and more mature classes that show more critical values: professionals between the ages of 55 and 64 even reach -35.5. The situation improves at least partially when considering the over-65s, which stand at -31.1.

From a territorial point of view, the worsening involves all areas of the country, but the worst records are in the North East (-36.8) and in the South (-36.2). The balance was -26.3 in the Centre, where there was a particularly marked drop compared to -8.1 in February.

Those with no employees are particularly penalised, with an index that reaches -37.1, while for firms with 3-5 employees the value is -29.3.