Quarterly report boosts Lottomatica, adjusted ebitda beats market estimates

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A rallying session for Lottomatica at Piazza Affari: the stock closed the day at the top of the list with +12.7% at 27.67 euro. The company ended the first quarter with an adjusted ebitda of 236 million (+7%) and value adjusted ebitda at normalised payout for sports betting of 80.5% for retail betting and 85.5% for online betting, which amounted to 253 million and showed an increase on Q1 2025 of 22%. Revenues grew to 602 million (+3% and +10% at normalised payout). Online revenues amounted to EUR 265 million (+10%) while net financial debt was EUR 2,051 million. The chairman and CEO, Guglielmo Angelozzi, emphasises in the note on the accounts that shareholders will be paid back 'up to one billion'.

The gaming and betting company estimates to close the year with adjusted ebitda "at the high end of guidance and to return up to 1 billion to shareholders between 2026 and 2027, starting this week, kicking off the newly approved buyback programme". According to analysts at Intermonte, 'results came in above expectations, particularly the adjusted ebitda figure which exceeded our estimates by 4%, up 7% y/y'. According to the brokers, growth was driven in particular by "the Online division, up 18% YoY and 3% better than our expectations, and the Gaming Franchise division, up 4% YoY and 6% better. The release is positive, particularly considering that 1Q is expected to be the weakest quarter of the year, due to an unfavourable comparison basis on payout". Regarding the guidance, "the company now expects 2026 adjusted ebitda at the upper end of the range indicated in March, at 980 million (+14%). Our estimates and consensus are currently aligned to the midpoint of the range (950/955mn), offering an upside of 2/3%'.

According to Banca Akros, 'sales in the first quarter of 2026 were in line with the company's consensus (EUR 603 million) and our forecast of EUR 601 million, despite lower-than-expected growth in gaming'. According to the brokers, 'adjusted ebitda was slightly better than expected and company consensus, while net profit was lower due to higher extraordinary items of around EUR 20m, partly offset by a lower tax rate at 31%. We highlight the very high profitability of the online segment, with a margin of 57.5%'. On the profitability front, "it was influenced by higher payouts, with like-for-like growth in revenue/adjusted EBITDA of +10%/+22%, assuming normalised payouts of 80.5% for retail and 85.5% for online. Net debt is in line with expectations'. In addition, the company refined its guidance for 2026 "indicating adjusted revenue/ebitda of EUR 2,390-2,460 million and EUR 940-980 million, targeting the upper end of the ebitda range assuming normalised payouts. Considering the midpoint of the ebitda range (EUR 957 million), the new indication is higher than our estimates.