Rai: the ‘Rai Way’ remains an unknown factor in the accounts; the aim is to break even by the end of 2026

The group’s accounts are back in the red, but with the prospect of breaking even by the end of the year. Revenue figures for the year have also deteriorated compared with the targets initially set in the 2026 budget, although they currently remain above the 2025 figure. Finally, there has been a significant improvement in the net financial position. However, what appears to be a sword of Damocles hangs over the whole situation. At present, in fact, even the second revised forecast for the 2026 budget takes into account the valuation of Rai Way shares.

According to *Il Sole 24 Ore*, this is the picture that emerged from the board meeting on 17 September, which gave the go-ahead to the second revision of the public broadcaster’s 2026 budget. According to this, the group could record a loss of 8 million euros at the end of the year. This would mark a reversal compared with the end of 2025 (a financial year in which, for the first time in years, the Rai group recorded a profit of 9.3 million) but also compared with the first version of the budget, which had forecast a net profit of 7 million.

There has been no official comment on the matter, but according to *Il Sole 24 Ore*, attention within Rai is focused on the reported improvement in operational management in recent times. Hence the confidence that the financial year will end in the black, despite the extraordinary costs associated with the Milan–Cortina Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup.

Revenue is currently forecast to stand at 2.83 billion, compared with 2.81 in 2025, the 2.87 in the budget and the 2.82 in the first revised forecast. Given the events at Rai in the first half of the year, the rise in external costs was inevitable: 1.06 billion in 2025 and 1.16 billion in the latest budget revision. Advertising revenue, however, is performing well: 445 million, 14 million more than budgeted. These are the group figures for public television. The net financial position is improving: from -584.9 million to -510 million. However, a word of caution. There are two caveats to bear in mind: the revised forecast does not take into account the property plan, the implementation of which has been postponed to 2027, but it does factor in the valuation of Rai Way’s shares. Without the latter, the net financial position would, according to calculations by *Il Sole 24 Ore*, exceed -600 million.

This option – the sale – was considered as a means of supporting the business plan, but was shelved during the negotiations with Ei Towers, which were intended to lead to a merger that would have created the Italian TV tower hub. However, the negotiations between Rai on the one hand and F2i and Mfe-Mediaset on the other were unsuccessful, breaking down definitively in early July. The option to sell the shares exceeding 50.1 per cent (compared to the 65 per cent currently held by Rai) has thus come back into focus. When asked, however, Rai replied that ‘as regards Rai Way, the possibility of selling shares is just one of several funding options set out in the Business Plan that are currently being analysed, and it is not necessarily the most cost-effective. At present, again with regard to Rai Way, the priority is to support its industrial development and diversification”. In this case, it would mean that the possibility is factored into the budget, but that between now and the end of the year, the situation could change.