Referendum: the debate heats up – here’s what the latest polls say
With the exception of Ixè, all polling organisations are predicting a clear victory for the ‘yes’ camp
The debate over the constitutional referendum on the separation of career paths is heating up ahead of the referendum on 22 and 23 March. The latest incident occurred at the opening of the judicial year on 30 January at the Court of Cassation and on 31 January at the Courts of Appeal. The number of opinion polls published over the last month has increased significantly. The general trend seems clear: apart from Ixè, which shows a very slight lead for the ‘yes’ vote, all other polling organisations indicate broad support for those in favour of the reform (with a lead of almost 20 per cent over the ‘no’ vote), albeit with a turnout figure below 50 per cent (though it should be noted that there is no quorum requirement for constitutional referendums).
Noto polls
According to voting intentions surveyed by the Noto Institute for *Porta a porta* on 28 January, 45 per cent of Italians say they will vote on 22 and 23 March. In particular, 59 per cent of Italians would vote ‘yes’ to confirming the law on the separation of magistrates’ careers (as defined by Parliament), whilst 41 per cent would vote for its repeal. Support for the ‘yes’ vote has actually increased compared with the 57 per cent recorded in the previous survey in December.
Ixè
The only polling organisation that actually shows a neck-and-neck race is Ixè, which carried out a poll on 27 January. When asked, “If a referendum were held today, would you vote to approve or reject the justice reform approved by the Meloni government?”, 50.1 per cent answered ‘yes’ and 49.9 per cent answered ‘no’.
The mid-January poll
The Piepoli Institute published a poll on 16 January, which showed that 59 per cent were in favour, compared with 41 per cent against. In a poll published on 15 January on La 7’s *PiazzaPulita*, Eumetra MR reported that 52.7 per cent would vote ‘yes’ to the reform, compared with 47.3 per cent voting ‘no’. Then, on 13 January, Porta a porta released an Only Numbers poll showing 50.3 per cent in favour, 35.4 per cent against and 14 per cent undecided (with 0.3 per cent invalid votes).
