Regionals: Zaia effect on the League, Carroccio and Fdi tied in Veneto
For the regional elections on 23 and 24 November, a poll by the Demos institute (conducted between 24 and 27 October) places the League between 22 and 26% and Fratelli d'Italia very close, between 21 and 25%. The centre-right candidate, the Lega's Alberto Stefani, is above 60%
'On 23 and 24 November in Veneto, I hope that the Lega will be the first party in Veneto, boldly and courageously. We are content with this'. The wish formulated by the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, opening the election campaign for Alberto Stefani as president of Veneto, seems achievable. According to a recent poll by the Demos institute for the Gazzettino's North-Eastern Observatory, Fratelli d'Italia and Lega are neck-and-neck as the relative majority party in a region where Stefani's victory is not in question (ithe League's deputy secretary is estimated at between 58% and 62% of valid votes, while another survey by the Noto institute puts him at 61%) over centre-left challenger Giovanni Manildo (detached, between 32% and 36%).
Lega and Fdi paired in Veneto
As for the lists, the Demos institute poll (conducted between 24 and 27 October) places the League between 22 and 26% and Fratelli d'Italia very close, between 21 and 25%. The League would therefore once again be contending with Fdi for supremacy in the region. A result that can certainly be attributed to the candidature of the outgoing governor Luca Zaia as leader of the Carroccio in all provinces.
Zaia's tow
An undoubted pull, if one thinks that in the last electoral round for the regional elections (in 2020) the Zaia list collected a stratospheric 44.6% of votes, also drawing consensus from the centre-right. Also in 2020, the League was the first centre-right party in Veneto with 16.9% compared to 9.6%.
Fdi's overtaking
But in a few years the situation was reversed. At the 2022 political elections Fratelli d'Italia had a boom, imposing itself as the first party in Veneto with 32.6 per cent and the League retreated to 14.6 per cent. This result was consolidated at the 2024 European elections with Fdi at 37.6 per cent and the Carroccio at 13.2 per cent. Numbers that lie behind the tug-of-war that went on for months in the centre-right over who among the League and Fdi should express the presidential candidate in the region. Until the decision of the Melonians to take a step back in exchange for a 'right of first refusal' for the regional elections in Lombardy in 2028.
