Reintroduction of compulsory conscription: it costs too much. Here's why Italy says no (except the League)

The war in Ukraine and Russian expansionism, and, more generally, the security threats emerging globally, have reignited the debate on compulsory military conscription. After the end of the Cold War, it had been put back in the drawer by most states (Italy did so with a law in 2005, stipulating that it could return either in the event of war or in that of an international crisis requiring a numerical strengthening of the Armed Forces). Now it is back in the limelight because, it is the thesis expressed by those who support it, it makes it possible to deal with threats that develop on several fronts.

The Munich-based Ifo Institute has warned of the enormous economic costs involved in reintroducing compulsory military service in Germany. A hypothesis that Berlin is considering, while the same path was discarded by Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, who said he was against it. 'I am not sure,' he explained, 'that six months in a barracks will change young people. It would be money thrown away. We need professional armed forces, trained and prepared people'. And again: 'The armed forces cannot be thought of as a place to educate young people, which must be done by the family and the school. Universal civil service is not something that concerns the armed forces'. Crosetto proposed as an alternative to focus on reservists, i.e. volunteers who are periodically trained and educated.

Of a different opinion is the League, a political force that supports the Meloni executive, which in May presented to the Chamber a bill (title: 'Establishment of universal territorial military and civil service and delegation to the government for its discipline') to reintroduce universal conscription: six months compulsory for boys and girls. Forza Italia is also against it, which through deputy prime minister Antonio Tajani confided: 'I don't think we can reintroduce compulsory conscription. It would cost too much. We already have professional armed forces. It is not that one is a soldier just because he has a uniform. It's one thing to have a reserve in case of emergency, or civil service, it's another to have compulsory conscription.

In the meantime, Ifo researchers have made some calculations. Depending on the scenario, according to the researchers' calculations, this measure would reduce German economic output by EUR 3 to 70 billion. "As an alternative to compulsory military service, it would make more sense to provide the Bundeswehr with more resources to make it more attractive as an employer," explained Ifo expert Panu Poutvaara. "It would be conceivable to pay higher wages to those who perform military service."

Economists have considered three scenarios: if military service were compulsory for an entire age group, this would reduce economic output by 1.6 per cent or EUR 70 billion. If, as in the case of the old military service, it was performed by only a quarter of those enlisted, the cost would be around 17 billion euros. A military service distributed over 5 per cent of the enlisted age group, which according to Ifo roughly corresponds to the model practised in Sweden, would cost around EUR 3 billion. "A military obligation involving the entire age group would result in annual economic costs roughly equal to the funds from the defence budget and the Bundeswehr special fund combined in 2024," said Ifo military expert Marcel Schlepper.