The war effect: how Denmark, Germany and France strengthen leverage

An increasingly real threat from Russia. The hypothesis that, in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the November presidential election, the US may decide to contribute less to European defence, especially in terms of expenditure. There is no shortage of factors that have convinced and are convincing Europe to review certain cornerstones of its defence strategies. Not to mention that the collapse in recruitment is a trend that characterises all Western countries.

Governments are running for cover. And the reservists are in the front row in this operation: in Germany they are called up for training at least once a year and number about 15,000 while France has 77,000 (seven thousand have been called up for service) with a medium-term target of 85,000 to be raised to 100,000 by 2024 (the French minister Lecornu himself has declared that the goal is to have one reserve soldier for every two active soldiers). Then there are the countries where conscription is compulsory: in Israel, where the rule applies to both men and women, there are about 400,000 reservists, while in Switzerland, where there is also the alternative of civilian service, there are 300,000.

The latest move was made by Denmark. 'We rearm not to wage war but to avoid it'. With these words, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced the introduction of conscription for women as of 2026, and the extension of conscription from four to 11 months for both men and women. The Scandinavian country thus becomes the third European nation - along with Norway and Sweden - to require women to serve in the armed forces. In a geopolitical context marked by tensions related to the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, Copenhagen also announced that it would increase its defence budget by almost $6 billion over the next five years in order to meet NATO targets. According to PM Frederiksen, this decision is in line with the goal of achieving 'full gender equality'. For Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, 'a more robust conscription, including full gender equality, must contribute to solving the challenges of defence, national mobilisation and equipping our armed forces'. In Denmark, women can currently volunteer for military service. Last year, 4,700 people did military service, of which approximately 25 per cent were women. This number will be increased to 5,000 per year. The Danish armed forces currently have around 20,000 active personnel, including around 9,000 professional troops. In 2017, it was neighbouring Sweden that had instituted military conscription for both men and women after the government in Stockholm had evoked a deterioration of the security environment in Europe. The Scandinavian country had abolished compulsory military service for men in 2010 because there were enough volunteers to meet its military needs. Before that date, however, there had never been military service for women. Norway, on the other hand, introduced a similar law in 2013 that applies military conscription to both sexes.

Germany considers reintroducing semi-compulsory conscription, inspired by the Swedish model. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius is aiming to prepare a proposal by 1 April to make the call to arms feasible within a short timeframe. Compulsory conscription in Germany was abolished in 2011. "At the time there were reasons to suspend compulsory military service, but in retrospect it was a mistake," Pistorius explained to the newspaper Die Welt in early December, citing the case of Sweden, where compulsory military service was suspended and then reintroduced, as one of the models to be evaluated.

France is moving in the direction of raising the age limit for army reservists. Currently set at between 62 and 65, depending on the case, the threshold will move to between 70 and 72, again depending on the case. Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu explained that the goal is to have 'in the long term 300,000 soldiers, including 100,000 reservists'.