Renault, Bmw and Volvo on the podium. Here's why they win (for now) in 2024

They are doing less well Stellantis and Volkswagen. They are two giants, with different models. But what doesn't work? Stellantis fights costs by taking refuge in Morocco, Poland and Serbia. The Wolfsburg giant has put all its eggs in the electric basket and now, as the market has not followed, it is turning to hybrids. As for costs, it is reducing capacity by 25 per cent in Germany, an unprecedented fact in front of which the market is hesitant, because historically reducing labour costs is a major obstacle for VW.

"Stellantis is surprised by disappointing results in the American market," Ferraris continues, "due to delays in aligning production with real market demand and a product mix policy that has proved to be out of step with consumer preferences, which have revalued low-medium range SUVs, thus favouring GM, Toyota and Hyundai-Kia. For Stellantis, the challenge is to rebalance the product offering for the American market and make up the ground lost in Europe due to delays in the launch of expected products, such as the new Citroen C3, and logistical problems'.

"Volkswagen is paying for the time lost in cultivating ambitions to develop proprietary software and platforms that have severely slowed down the launch of new products and the direct transition to pure electrics, especially in the attack phase of electrification. The challenge for Volkswagen remains the programme to restructure the production set-up in Europe in order to increase the efficiency and productivity of the Volkswagen and Audi brands, the first result of which has been the restructuring of the Audi plant in Belgium. But also the reshaping of the software strategy for the development of the new electronic architecture in partnership with the American Rivian, and the adoption of platforms dedicated to electric engines by the Chinese partner Xpeng in China, starting in 2026. Vw has one of the highest costs in the industry in terms of investment, including research and development charges. That is the equivalent of 13.5%-14.5% of car sales. And like Stellantis, the Vw Group has also significantly reduced its cash flow forecast (net of investments) for the year 2024.

Another large European group like Mercedes-Benz has produced a major brake on electrics, manages to hold the bar but does not quite shine. And China suffers. "Mercedes' electric SUV range struggles to establish itself in a very competitive market and volume growth on the top end suffers. By contrast, the performance of commercial vehicles is very positive. For Mercedes, however, the hesitation on the pure electric market is rewarding for the group's margins, thus allowing it to maintain the profitability indications previously shared with the market for the year 2024."

In general, even in the rest of the world those who bet on electrics are losing (Ford heavily), those who bet on hybrids are running, despite other problems: there is the issue of the certification scandal that has hit Toyota, the world's first manufacturer in trouble, which sees growth slowing down and is losing ground in China.

'Ford,' explains Ferraris, 'suffers from quality problems that are a ballast in the US. Moreover, cost cutting is proceeding slowly, leaving the only positive note the performance of commercial vehicles. GM is largely benefiting from the difficulties of Ford and Stellantis in the US but continues to suffer in China. Hybrids are winning across the board in Europe in the United States, making the fortune of the Japanese, with the exception of Nissan whose product mix penalises the group in America and China.

And the champions of the electric car outside Europe? Tesla loses on the delivery side andsees more than one unknown factor: think of the bet on AI, which underpins the stock, and the postponement on the presentation of robotaxis, the investigations and enquiries on the Autopilot driving software, the phantom cheap Tesla - the Model 2 - which should guarantee volume, the numerous recalls. Can BYD take advantage of this? "In reality they lose all manufacturers exclusively on electric drives, but for Tesla the results are particularly disappointing for the reasons mentioned. Tesla's weakness is an opportunity for traditional European manufacturers and for BYD on entry level electric models, a long-standing ambition of Tesla's that does not take off. Moreover, Tesla's erratic pricing policy of the past two years has been an own goal, having created disaffection among customers'.

Lastly: will the pure electric trend remain weak? "At this stage of the market, electrics need generous incentives because in the eyes of the consumer there is still no clear perception of an economic advantage over the lifetime of the vehicles. In addition, leasing, the most suitable formula for covering residual value risk, suffers from still high interest rates'.