Renewables, millions of tonnes of waste: recycling chain urgently needed

The development of renewables will bring millions of tonnes of waste in the coming years: materials from photovoltaics, wind power and batteries for electric vehicles. The study 'Renewable Energy and Electric Mobility: Investment Opportunities in the Emerging Waste Recycling Value Chain' by Native Strategy, an international strategy consultancy linked to the Bip (Business Integration Partner) ecosystem, tries to line up some numbers.

According to the report, Italy is preparing to face a peak in demand for photovoltaic panel decommissioning between 2027 and 2033. This critical period coincides with the end of life of the 16.9 GW of plants installed between 2010 and 2013 thanks to public incentives. As far as wind energy is concerned, on the other hand, our country is facing the end of the operating cycle of the first generation of generators. The study underlines the urgency of developing alternative business solutions to landfill for wind turbines, which are mainly composed of composite materials and therefore difficult to recycle. Although around 85-90% of the generators can be recycled, the weight of the blades is a significant constraint on the cost-effectiveness of the recycling process, estimated at around $530,000 per turbine. The indications of European directives, which prohibit disposal in landfills, already make it crucial to develop new supply chains for the more sustainable recovery and recycling of these technologies.

Finally, the electrification of transport means that the volume of batteries for electric vehicles at the end of their cycle is expected to increase from 1,000 tonnes in 2025 to more than 6 million tonnes by 2050. Recycling is all the more urgent considering that the demand for materials such as lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel and graphite will grow by 500% by 2050, while the operating costs for battery recycling in Italy could reach EUR 309 million by the same period.

"We are facing a critical phase, but also one of opportunity for Italy, as in the coming years we will need to dispose of many end-of-life renewable energy technologies and batteries in a sustainable manner. With the growth in the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power plants, and the expected increase in end-of-life batteries, it will be crucial to develop and adopt advanced technologies that allow these processes to be managed effectively," commented Paola Leoni, CEO of Native Strategy. "Strong investments in renewable energy will already generate millions of tonnes of high-value waste in the next 10 years, offering the possibility of recovering strategic and rare materials. To date, the Italian supply chain shows ample market space for institutional and private players, favouring aggregations, partnerships, and the grounding of new recovery solutions enabled by technological advances," added Davide Bertelli, Native Strategy director in charge of the study.