Renewables, projects up by 73%

Renewables operations over 50 GW in 2023 and potential investments of EUR 80 billion (twice as much as in 2022). A streamlined authorisation process, with approved projects up 73%, but still not enough to keep up with green targets. A significant increase in costs, "which makes an increase in tariffs essential for the success of auctions" on new plants. The Irex Annual Report 2024 was presented on 26 June in Rome, at an event in media partnership with Il Sole 24 Ore: a document by the Althesys think tank, led by Professor Alessandro Marangoni, considered a benchmark for the green industry.

Qthis year," Marangoni emphasises, "we expect 7.1 GW of renewables to be installed in Italy after last year's more than 5 GW and the 3 GW reached in May: below, therefore, the 8 GW predicted by minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, and the 9-10 GW requested by Pniec.

The topic is in any case highly topical. If on the one hand - thanks also to record hydroelectricity - Italy is steadily travelling above 50% of electricity produced from green sources, on the other hand "the sector is being challenged by a combination of critical factors: a difficult macro framework, the high level of interest rates, material price increases and regulatory uncertainties, starting with the Area Idonee and the Dl Agricoltura," Marangoni points out. So many question marks are also discounted by the Stock Exchange, where the Irex Index - which groups together the main listed green companies - in 2023 ceded 21.6% against the +24% of the entire list and the +7.4% of the Ftse Energia.

In any case, as noted by the Irex study, the sector's growth continues, at least 'on paper'. The investments recorded in Italy in 2023, 96% of which are new green projects (regardless of their state of progress), exceed 80 billion. Among the technologies, photovoltaics and agri-voltaics are firmly in the lead, together accounting for 75% of initiatives and 56% of power, while wind power, both onshore and offshore, is gaining ground, reaching 22.5 GW.

In the background, Marangoni continues, however, there are still fears for the European industry, caught in the grip between Chinese competition and US protectionism, all the more so with the rise in production costs, Lcoe in technical jargon. In Europe, he notes, they have reached €76.6 per MW for onshore wind and €100.2 for offshore, while for photovoltaics they are at €77 for utility scale and €107.4 for commercial. They are expected to fall this year, but 'the updating of tariffs has become essential for the success of the auctions and all European countries are moving, more or less quickly, in that direction'.