All the anti-Vannacci traps: return to the Mattarellum, 4% threshold, doubling of signatures

"A reflection should now be opened on the electoral law. Are we sure that a proportional-based system is the most suitable to avoid fragmentation? I believe that the solution lies precisely in the uninominal constituencies that are planned to be deleted...'.

It is the leader of the League Massimiliano Romeo, while in the Senate the Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi's communications on the events in Turin are being aired, who puts on record a concern that runs through the entire centre-right: is it not that in the end the electoral reform that is being discussed - no more single-member constituencies, proportional basis with a 55% prize for those who exceed 40 or 42% of the vote and a 3% barrier - will end up will it favour the breakaway Roberto Vannacci? With polls already estimating the new far-right formation 'National Future' at between 3 and 4 per cent, the margin of advantage that the centre-right now has in the polls would be reduced to zero. What's more: votes would be taken away not only from the League but also from Fratelli d'Italia. Even before Vannacci crossed the Rubicon among the Melonians there was already reasoning about the advisability of raising the 3% threshold agreed with Action leader Carlo Calenda to 4%, with the risk, however, of pushing Calenda back into the arms of the wide camp by adding another 3/4% to his opponents.

On the other hand, not even the solution of the uninominal constituencies put forward by the Lega Romeo, and also examined in these hours by the Fratelli d'Italia, would act as a dam. In 1996, when voting was carried out with the Mattarellum (75% of constituencies compared to the 37% of the current Rosatellum), Pino Rauti's Fiamma Tricolore took 1.7% in the Chamber and 2.3% in the Senate and therefore did not enter Parliament, but it was enough to contribute to the defeat of Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right. In short, with any electoral law even 2% less can do a lot of harm. What is more, a system with a prevalence of uninominal constituencies, which the League favours in order to enhance its specific weight in the North, would not guarantee a certain result. Something that instead the 'Melonellum' guarantees with the majority prize: whoever comes first governs. A concept that yesterday in the Senate, talking to reporters, both the President of the Chamber Ignazio La Russa and the Minister for Relations with the Parliament Luca Ciriani, both Melonians, highlighted ("stability is also convenient for the secretary of the PD, if she wants to run for the leadership of this country").

In short, the reference model at the moment seems to remain the one in the field, similar to the system in force for the regional elections. "You will see that in the end a proportional system will be made with a 55% prize above 42% and with a 3% barrier, there is no escape," Forza Italia senators' group leader Maurizio Gasparri concludes.

In the meantime, something can be done to put a spoke in Vannacci's wheel regardless of thresholds and constituencies: raising the number of signatures required for the presentation of new lists not previously represented in Parliament at the next political elections with a rule to be included in the electoral law. Approximately 73,500 signatures are now needed to be able to present themselves nationwide. These drop to 56,250 'in the case of dissolution of the Chamber of Deputies that anticipates the deadline by more than one hundred and twenty days'. A doubling is enough to create some serious problems for the general. But it is clear that the problem is political: with Vannacci out, Giorgia Meloni needs Calenda in. For now, from Azione they rule out the hypothesis, unless the League changes leader ('never with Salvini and never with Conte', is the motto), but the road is still long.