Rice: the season gets underway with prices plummeting and costs rising for producers

Pending a full picture of the harvest, the 2026–27 rice season has seen prices plummet by up to 40 per cent compared with last year, whilst production costs linked to energy and transport continue to rise. The analysis published today by the Cremona-Mantua-Pavia Chamber of Commerce, with the support of the Borsa merci telematica (Bmti), highlights a domestic market that is in a phase of stabilisation.

Prices for unhulled rice started the season at levels significantly lower than last year’s, remaining broadly stable during the first few weeks. In mid-October, however, some signs of an upturn emerged, mainly attributable to a recovery in demand from the processing industry.

In Mortara, the main trading centre for the Lomellina rice-growing district, the most significant year-on-year falls were seen in Vialone Nano (-40 per cent), Araldo (-39 per cent), Sant’Andrea (-32 per cent), Selenio (-29 per cent) and Baldo (-28 per cent). As regards Baldo, the market remains exposed to the risk posed by Turkey’s new customs regime on rice, which is based on a different system for calculating tariffs. A change in the conditions for access to the Turkish market, explains the BMTI analysis, could penalise a variety for which Turkey represents a significant market. Lungo B also recorded a double-digit year-on-year decline (-18%), whilst varieties traditionally used for risotto showed less pronounced losses: -7% for Carnaroli and -12% for Arborio. Bucking the trend are Ribe-type parboiled rice grains, which have recorded a 3 per cent increase at the start of the season compared with the first weeks of the previous season, supported in part by strong demand.

Meanwhile, costs continue to exert significant pressure on the rice supply chain. On the logistics front, despite the decline observed since July – attributable to a slowdown in transport demand – sea freight rates for container transport remain significantly higher than a year ago, driven by increases in operational costs, particularly insurance premiums and fuel costs. The World Container Index for the Shanghai–Genoa route remains 80 per cent higher than in September 2025. Freight rates for dry bulk transport are also on the rise: the Baltic Dry Index recorded a +60% increase between September 2025 and September 2026. On the fuel front, persistent international tensions over petroleum distillates continue to weigh on the cost of agricultural diesel, which rose by 55 per cent year-on-year in September.

Mixed signals are also emerging from foreign trade. In the first half of 2026, Italian exports of rice products recorded a year-on-year decline in volume of -5.4 per cent. The decline mainly affected paddy rice (-30%) and semi-milled and milled rice (-5.9%), whilst exports of semi-polished rice (+2.2%) and broken rice (+1.6%) increased. Imports, on the other hand, are rising, up by 6.6 per cent year-on-year, mainly due to higher purchases of semi-milled and milled rice (+13.9 per cent), with double-digit increases in arrivals from Thailand (+22.9 per cent), Cambodia (+14.1 per cent) and India (+29.4 per cent), and of semi-milled rice (+7.6 per cent), whilst imports of paddy rice (-4 per cent) and broken rice (-4.8 per cent) fell.