Rising sea levels: Cinque Terre under threat by 2150

The effects of rising sea levels are being felt. In Liguria, the coastlines most exposed to these effects are those of Monterosso and Vernazza, in the Cinque Terre National Park. This finding emerges from the study “The First Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Scenarios up to 2150 CE for the Coasts of Monterosso and Vernazza, Cinque Terre National Park (Liguria, Italy)”, recently published in the scientific journal Remote Sensing.

The research, which analyses in detail the possible coastal flooding scenarios in the two villages (Monterosso and Vernazza) by 2150, ‘highlighting the vulnerability of beaches, quays, port areas and tourism and transport infrastructure’ is an international team of researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, the Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering of the National Research Council, the Department of Engineering at the University of Basilicata, the Cinque Terre National Park Authority, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, the ‘Lesia’ Astronomical Observatory in Paris and Radboud University in the Netherlands.

The analysis shows that the area of Liguria under consideration ‘exhibits a non-stationary trend in sea-level rise, confirming the increasing vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas and outlining scenarios that are useful for spatial planning and coastal risk reduction’.

“According to our calculations, by 2150 the relative rise in sea level could be between 0.60 and 1.17 metres, resulting in an increase in the areas at risk of flooding,” emphasise the study’s coordinators, Marco Anzidei, Research Director at the INGV, and Alessandro Bosman, Senior Researcher at the IGAG-CNR and Research Associate at the INGV. Our work has also highlighted that, during extreme events, the most vulnerable areas are small beaches and low-lying port areas’. Not only that: ‘During the strongest storm surges, with return periods of 1 and 100 years under conditions of higher sea levels – they add – in the most severe climate scenario, waves could reach run-up heights of over 13 metres, posing potential risks to the railway lines connecting the Cinque Terre’.

The study therefore provides a starting point for implementing future solutions aimed at adapting these areas, including ‘adjusting the height of the quays, improving drainage systems and enhancing the protection of infrastructure and tourism-related services’.