Roberto Alesse (Adm): ‘Tax revenue and seized goods reflect the changes in the tobacco market’

Seizures, on the other hand, are falling in terms of weight but rising in value. In 2025, goods worth 39.3 million euros were seized. This is over ten million euros more than in 2024, despite a reduction of ten tonnes. 

Economic value of the seizures is linked to the weighted average price of the products concerned, which has risen steadily in recent years, both in terms of the tax component (the proportion of excise duty and VAT in the final price) and the market strategies of manufacturers, which are increasingly focused on products with a higher unit value. It follows that the total value of seizures may be on the rise even when the volumes intercepted are lower, because each individual unit commands a higher price than in the past. This reflects a situation in which the products involved in illicit trafficking are commanding progressively higher prices.

What products are we talking about?

Alongside traditional products, particularly cigarettes, there is a growing variety of types being intercepted: genuine products, but diverted from their intended market; counterfeit products; products not registered with the Agency, i.e. lacking authorisation for sale in Italia and with an unidentified or unidentifiable manufacturer (cigarettes known as cheap white or illicit white).

At the same time, there is a range of new-generation products, such as e-liquids, for which the market and regulatory framework are constantly evolving. The illicit tobacco market is not static and adapts rapidly to changes in demand and the regulatory environment. The monitoring and enforcement activities of the Customs and Monopolies Agency keep pace with these changes and, in this sense, provide a flexible and vigilant safeguard.

What about raw tobacco?

With regard to crude oil, in-depth discussions are currently taking place at European level – in which the Agency is actively participating – aimed at strengthening tax surveillance measures: the aim is to develop shared tools that will enable more effective monitoring of flows, identifying criminal activities right from the earliest stages of the product’s processing.

Does higher taxation drive, or could it in some way drive, the black market?

The relationship between the level of taxation and the growth of the illicit market is not an automatic or linear one, and experience in this sector confirms that it is not taxation in itself that determines the expansion of the black market, but rather the interaction between the level of taxation, market conditions and the system’s overall capacity for regulation and control.

Generally speaking, economic literature and analyses carried out at national, EU and international levels show that particularly significant increases in the tax burden may, under certain conditions, create incentives for the development of illicit supply channels. However, the link between taxation and the black market cannot be regarded as straightforward, as the effects of tax policies depend on a variety of structural and operational variables, and national experience highlights the decisive influence of a number of factors, such as the effectiveness and reach of control systems across the territory, the level of traceability and trackability of products throughout the supply chain, the organisation and structure of the authorised sales network, the intensity of enforcement activities against smuggling and counterfeiting, and the capacity to analyse and monitor market flows and consumer behaviour.