Axios: US and Iran close to a memorandum, Tehran response expected in 48 hours

US President Donald Trump's announcement to suspend 'Project Freedom' raises two questions. Namely, what has changed in just two days? And does this turnabout reflect a move towards a decisive moment in the negotiations to end the war, or is it merely a tactical pause in a still open confrontation? These are the questions asked by al Jazeera TV in an analysis published on its website. Trump has indeed spoken of "important progress" towards an overall agreement, the Qatar broadcaster points out, recalling, however, that the halt to 'Project Freedom' is a temporary measure that does not affect the essence of the naval blockade imposed on Tehran, which is destined to remain in force. Trump linked this turn of events to the military successes achieved and the progress towards an agreement, adding that the decision also came in response to a request from Pakistan and other countries without naming them, as part of international mediation efforts to reduce tensions and end the conflict. The US announcement, notes al Jazeera, thus represents a temporary de-escalation of the ''militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz'', potentially paving the way for a second round of negotiations in Islamabad with higher hopes of a political breakthrough. The tone used by Trump suggests that the change does not alter the substance of the American strategic position, but rather reflects a reorganisation of priorities.

Washington, says al-Jazeera, sees calibrated military pressure as a tool to improve conditions at the negotiating table, without giving up the diplomatic route. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's words at yesterday's press conference indicate that Washington intends to consolidate a de facto truce from direct attacks, while keeping the ability to retaliate intact. This reinforces the hypothesis that the military breakthrough is linked to an active negotiating path, although the results are still uncertain. The public call for Iran to return to the negotiating table suggests that the US administration sees a diplomatic window open, but not yet reached the tipping point. For its part, Iran has announced the creation of a new mechanism to manage the transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a sign of its willingness to impose a new obstacle on the ground in this vital passage. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that Tehran has not yet started a full escalation, accusing the US and allies of endangering international shipping. The Iranian moves and the warnings of the Revolutionary Guards indicate that Tehran is using the Strait both as political leverage and as an instrument of military pressure, while avoiding a head-on clash. An attitude that reveals willingness to negotiate, but from a position of strength and not surrender.

The US and Iran are close to a one-page memorandum to end the war, a Pakistani source involved in the peace efforts told Reuters. "We will close the issue very soon. We are almost there," the source told the British agency as quoted on the site.

Strong acceleration of declines in oil prices, with signs that markets are raising hopes about the US-Iran truce at the Strait of Hormuz. By late morning the barrel of Brent, the benchmark North Sea crude dropped 6.75 percent to $102.45. In afterhours trading the West Texas Intermediate fell 7.50 percent to $94.60.

The White House believes it is close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Axios writes. The US expects answers from Iran on several key points in the next 48 hours. The agreement would include Iran's commitment to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, US agreement to lift sanctions and release billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds, and the lifting by both sides of restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

 The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, either directly or through mediators. In its current form, the MoU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations for a detailed agreement on opening the strait, limiting Iran's nuclear programme and lifting US sanctions. According to two sources, the negotiations could take place in Islamabad or Geneva. According to one US official, Iranian restrictions on maritime traffic through the strait and the US naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period. If negotiations failed, US forces would be able to reinstate the blockade or resume military actions, the US official said. The duration of the moratorium on uranium enrichment is the subject of intense negotiations.

"China appreciates Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and reaffirms its legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during talks with Iranian counterpart Seyed Abbas Araghchi in Beijing today, according to a Chinese media note.

Israel has started paraffin deliveries to Germany at the request of the German Energy Ministry, in the context of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. This was announced by the Israeli Foreign and Energy Ministries, explaining that the decision is related to the tensions in the region and the repercussions on the global energy market. Der Spiegel reports. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar reportedly informed German Minister of Economy and Energy Katherina Reiche of the initiative during a visit to Berlin. However, no official confirmation has yet come from Germany. In recent days, Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder had stated that a paraffin shortage 'is not an issue for Germany', pointing out that there are sufficient refineries to cover the needs. The National Security Council, which met in April to assess the effects of the energy crisis linked to the conflict with Iran, had also indicated that stocks were 'adequate for a foreseeable period', while acknowledging a 'tense situation' and the need to monitor developments.

Further reading

Energy shock, EU considers joint use of paraffin reserves

18 April 2026

The short-term impact of the war in Iran and the Middle East on global oil supply is greater than that recorded in previous energy crises (1973, 1979 and 2022). This was said by ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, speaking at the Festival of Sustainable Development 2026 in Milan. "Even taking into account the mitigation measures adopted, such as the redirection of oil flows via pipelines and the release of strategic reserves onto the market, the net contraction in supply is estimated to be around 12 million barrels per day, or around 11% of supply in the pre-conflict period. The re-establishment of supplies after the end of hostilities will take time, in view of the damage suffered by important oil facilities. As a result, crude oil prices soared. Gas prices have also risen, but so far much less than observed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This is important in the European context, given the close correlation between electricity and gas prices'.

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Georgieva (IMF): 'War in the Middle East holds back world growth'

09 April 2026

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi spoke on the phone with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. During the conversation, the parties, reviewing recent regional developments, stressed the need to continue on the path of diplomacy and cooperation between the countries in the region to prevent the emergence and escalation of tensions.

"Israel must immediately and unconditionally release Saif Abukeshek and Thiago de Avila, members of the Global Sumud Flotilla," demands the spokesperson of the UN Human Rights Office, Thameen Al-Kheetan. "It is not a crime to show solidarity and attempt to bring humanitarian aid to the Palestinian population of Gaza, who desperately need it," the spokesperson stressed in a comment released in Geneva. The two activists "continue to be held without charge". The spokesperson cites the "disturbing" reports of serious mistreatment of Abukeshek and de Avila, abuses that "must be investigated".

A Cma Cgm container ship was the 'target of an attack' in the Strait of Hormuz, the French shipping company confirmed. This was reported by the international media. According to Al-Jazeera and other media it was the ship 'San Antonio'. The company added that the attack resulted in injuries among crew members and damage to the ship. The injured crew members have been evacuated and are receiving medical assistance: according to the Turkish Anadolu Agency, they are allegedly Filipino citizens.

An Israeli settler was caught on video repeatedly spitting on St. James Cathedral in Jerusalem, an Armenian church built in the 12th century. The settler also used the middle finger of both hands to form the symbol of the cross. The news and video are reported by Al-Jazeera.

A cargo ship was probably hit by a cruise missile in the Persian Gulf region, causing several injuries among Filipino crew members. This was reported by two American officials to Cbs News, pointing out that the ship CGM San Antonio was hit late last night.

The British Maritime Traffic Agency (Ukmto) also reported receiving a report of 'a merchant ship struck by an unidentified projectile'. According to CBS, the ship was near Dubai yesterday morning, but it is unclear whether it has since moved, according to public tracking data.

"The current closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a shortage of paraffin supplies and thus a significant price increase. This represents a significant burden on the cost structure of the Lufthansa Group companies. Although fuel requirements for the current year are already covered to the tune of around 80 per cent through hedging transactions on petroleum product derivatives, the increase in paraffin prices currently leads to additional costs of EUR 1.7 billion in 2026." This was announced in the group's first-quarter results release, which explained that the group 'intends to offset this impact in the coming quarters through higher ticket revenues, network optimisation and further cost containment measures'. Although no restrictions on fuel supplies at the Group's hubs are expected at the moment, 'a possible reduction in availability in the second half of the year is a further risk factor'.

'The loud noises heard on the island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz were caused by the activation of the Iranian air defence system to counter reconnaissance drones and projectiles'. This was stated by the governor-general of Hormozgan province, quoted by Mehr news agency. "No attacks, explosions or damage have occurred," he added. The statement came after some local sources had reported sounds of explosions in Qeshm. The same sources added that explosions were also heard in the ports of Bandar Abbas and Sirik, both in Hormozgan province, at 1:30am local time. Iran's air defence system has been repeatedly activated in recent weeks to counter drones in other cities, including Tehran, as part of the ceasefire with the US.

Project Freedom, the major new American naval operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lasted only a day or so. The president, in the latest surprise turnaround on the war with Iran, decreed last night a 'pause' in the mission, which envisaged escort and protection of commercial vessels by the American fleet in crossing the strategic maritime corridor.

The decision opened a new yellow light on the next moves in the crisis. Trump said the pause would be for a "short period of time" and evoked "great progress" towards an agreement with Iran, without giving further details. He made it known that he wants to see if it can be finalised. However, the blockade of Iranian ports will continue unchanged, he added.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Beijing for talks. This was reported by the Chinese state news agency Xinhua, without giving further details. According to an earlier report by the Iranian news agency Fars, Araghchi would "discuss bilateral relations and regional and international developments" with Wang. This is the first face-to-face meeting between the foreign ministers of the two allies since the beginning of the war. Araghchi's trip precedes US President Donald Trump's visit to China, scheduled for 14 and 15 May, where he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump postponed his trip after the US and Israel launched the military operation against Iran on 28 February.

"Operation Epic Fury is over. Trump has notified Congress." Marco Rubio said this in a briefing without giving any other details. "Now there is Operation Project Freedom," he added.

- Italia has trained the police and security forces of Lebanon 'we will certainly consult it, it can be very useful for that country'. Marco Rubio said this at a White House briefing on the eve of his trip to Italia.

On the instructions of President Trump, the US, with Bahrain and Gulf partners - Saudi Arabia, Eau, Kuwait and Qatar - drafted a draft UN Security Council resolution to 'defend freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz', with a stop to 'attacks, mine laying and tolls'. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasised the need for "Iran to disclose the number and location of laid sea mines" and cooperate in their removal, supporting a humanitarian corridor, a note said. The hope is for a vote 'in the coming days' with the support of the Security Council and 'a broad base of co-sponsors'.

US President Donald Trump announced the suspension of 'Project Freedom' to facilitate an agreement with Iran. The decision, which Trump announced on his Truth Social, was made at the request of Pakistan, the main mediator between Washington and Tehran, the US president explained. According to the Iranian news agency Tasnim, Trump ''backtracked''. As reported by the Isna news agency, Trump reportedly cancelled the operation ''following the firm positions and warnings received from Iran''. And he denounces the ''failure of the United States to achieve its goals with Project Freedom''.