Poste Italiane rises, Citi revises estimates to 2028 and raises price target
Adjusted ebit expected to be 2-8% above consensus and dividend to grow with a yield of around 7%. Experts remain 'particularly optimistic' on PostePay segment
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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Purchases on the Poste Italiane share in Piazza Affari, which is among the list's best performers, while the FTSE MIB is little moved. Leading the way is a Citi report updating future estimates on the company ahead of its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results, which will be unveiled in early March. Analysts, in order to reflect company and industry trends, have in fact revised their model to 2028.
For the period 2026-2028, Citi now expects adjusted ebit to be 2-8% higher than consensus, mainly due to the performance of all divisions, with the exception - they note - of insurance services. In particular, the experts remain "particularly optimistic" about the PostePay segment.
Citi thus raises its price target to EUR 24.40 per share from EUR 23.15, an increase of 5%, and reiterates its 'Buy' rating. Moreover, the analysts assume that Poste Italiane will distribute a 'growing' dividend and offer investors a coupon yield of around 7%, a level deemed 'attractive' by the experts.
Among the risks for the group, Citi points to uncertain macroeconomic developments in Italy, which 'could put core revenues at risk'. In addition, factors that could prevent the stock from reaching the new target price include the lack of results from the restructuring of the postal business, the complexity of the sector, pressure on prices and rates, as well as Italian country risk, given the group's high exposure to Italian sovereign debt and shareholder structure.
