Tim's rise boosted by positive outcome of Agcm investigation into FiberCop
The authority effectively accepted the remedies proposed by the two companies. Meanwhile, the market awaits the quarterly accounts and the plan target
Le ultime da Radiocor
Commerzbank: esposizione potenziale UniCredit a 38,87% diritti voto (RCO)
Commerzbank: no a Ops UniCredit, piano vago e rischioso (RCO)
Borsa: ancora cali a meta' seduta con stallo Iran, frena Milano (-1,9%) con "dividend day"
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Buying session for Telecom Italia, on the day of quarterly data and plan targets and in the aftermath of the positive outcome of the Antitrust proceedings on FiberCop. The tlc group's shares are up, still at their highest since 2018. Telefonica's numbers also help, in the red but with positive indications for the future.
The news about Tim sees first of all the decision of the competition and market authority (Agcn), which announced the closing of the preliminary investigation procedure on the contract between Tim and FiberCop and in fact accepted the remedies proposed by the two companies. This concerns the so-called Master Service Agreement (Msa), signed by the two companies following the network spin-off in July 2024. FiberCop agreed to reduce the contractual term with Tim, remodelling it according to areas, while Tim agreed to retrocede Iru on the access network to some business customers in the event of the customer's loss and in the absence of alternative infrastructure from FiberCop.
"The closure of the proceedinggives Tim greater visibility to the contractual terms of the Msa, removes the risk related to volume discounts and introduces greater operational flexibility for Tim compared to the original Msa, reducing the contractual term," note Equita analysts who have a buy with a target price at 0.64 (below current prices) on the stock. For the analysts, this is a 'positive outcome' for Tim. For Akros' experts, the news is 'marginally positive for Tim and FiberCop, as the parties will not have to further revise their MSA'. Akros (buy with target at EUR 0.63) also points out that, should FiberCop enter into a merger or strategic partnership agreement with Open Fiber by the end of the 2026 financial year, Tim could be entitled to up to around EUR 2.5bn in earn-outs, as per the agreement to sell the network to Kkr in 2024.
Analysts currently include these earn-outs in the estimates with a probability of realisation of about 35%, totalling about EUR 875 million. The market then awaits the fourth quarter numbers and targets for the year. The consensus expects revenues up 2.9% with domestic at +1.9% and Brazil at +5.2%, ebitda up 6.4% and flat capex. The tlc sector is in turmoil today due to other news as well, starting with Telefonica's numbers: the stock started off strongly and has since trimmed its initial gains (it is now up 0.6%) after seeing losses widen in Q4 2025, due to restructuring costs in Spain, but with adjusted profit up thanks to domestic and Brazil results. For Morgan Stanley, the numbers are better than expected while free cash flow guidance has been revised towards the upper end of the range.
