Schlein stronger, but the PD is a lonely giant: M5s collapse weighs on it

Victory, albeit a foregone conclusion, of the centrosinistra in Emilia Romagna, where the Dem candidate Michele De Pascale is close to 57% and beats the "civic" challenger of the centre-right Elena Ugolini by over 16 points. And above all, victory for the centre-left in Umbria, a challenge for which all polling institutes were predicting a neck-and-neck on the eve of the event, with the mayor of Assisi Stefania Proietti winning with over 51%, beating the outgoing governor of the Lega Nord, Donatella Tesei, by about 5 points and bringing home a historic red region.

It is not the three-to-zero imagined last summer, given that in Liguria the vetoes and quarrels in the broad field on the one hand and the successful choice of the now former mayor of Genoa Marco Bucci by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on the other hand decreed in October the defeat by a whisker of the Dem Andrea Orlando. But for PD party secretary Elly Schlein it is a two-nil win on a single respectable day, which reinforces her leadership of the largest opposition party, an unequivocal pivot of the constituting coalition that will have to challenge the centre-right led by Meloni at the next political elections. As in Liguria, the Italian Democratic Party is confirmed as the leader in both regions, distancing itself by several points from the Prime Minister's party, Fratelli d'Italia: in Emilia Romagna it is abundantly back above 40%, reaching 43%, gaining seven points compared to the European elections in June, while Fdi is around 24%; in Umbria, instead, the Dem party is at 30%, while FdI is losing positions and stops at 19.4%.

Yet if we turn our gaze to the rest of the wide field, the picture for the Pd remains rather bleak, given that after Liguria the collapse of its main ally, the M5s, consolidates, which, as already happened in Liguria, halves its votes. As for the centrists, this time the veto of leader Giuseppe Conte was not total as in Liguria, where the renziani of Italia viva had to renounce running even in civic lists, leaving a mischievous freedom of vote. No symbol, therefore, but renziani in the field in the president's list in Emilia Romagna and in the civic 'civici umbri'. Matteo Renzi, sheltered from the failed test of his party, has good game in commenting: 'The united centre-left wins. The divided centre-left loses. Mathematics has always said it, politics confirms it today'.

The different impact of the vote on the Pd and the M5s is evidenced by Schlein's sudden arrival in Perugia at the side of the new governor Proietti ("a beautiful, moving victory") and by Conte's absence, who, while congratulating himself, puts party commitments ahead of him: "A resounding victory, but we are preparing Nova, we are in the home straight, the Constituent Assembly is blocking me in Rome". Already, for the M5s the constituent assembly looms, which next weekend will have to vote to re-found the movement and overcome the tutelage of Garante Beppe Grillo, whose office could even be cancelled. The meagre result could theoretically induce the members to choose the reduced autonomy from the right and the left in the name of the origins, but the reality is that the choice of the progressive camp is out of the question for the M5s: even the same victories in Emilia Romagna and Umbria push in that direction. However, one can bet that the stakes that the Pentastellati will want to put in place for the construction of the future alliance are destined to increase: the choice is between having the allies even sign a manifesto with 'the non-negotiable principles of the M5s' or aiming at the classic German-style 'government contract', a more probable solution.

But with this disproportion of votes, will the PD be able to accept programmatic vetoes, perhaps on issues such as foreign policy and Atlantic membership? The reformist minority is already on the warpath to push the secretary not to submit further to Conte's vetoes and stakes and to give more value to the centrists. But Schlein herself, analysing the vote in the heat of the moment, puts her hands out, stressing that 'unity and humility won' and that 'every single part of this coalition brought the value of its specificity to a collective victory'. A buon intenditor (Count) few words, for now.