Inflation jumps to 4.2 per cent in September. High fuel prices are a major factor – The trend in petrol and diesel prices
The so-called ‘shopping basket’ – which, incidentally, does not take high fuel prices into account – has risen from +0.9 per cent to +1.7 per cent. The index for frequently purchased goods has also risen (from +4.3 per cent to +5.3 per cent), whilst this index does take high fuel prices into account
According to preliminary estimates from Istat, in September 2026 the national consumer price index for the whole population rose to +0.7 per cent month-on-month and +4.2 per cent year-on-year (from +3.3 per cent the previous month). This rise was well above analysts’ expectations, who had forecast rising prices, but at around 3.7 per cent. The annual acceleration in inflation – as highlighted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics – is primarily attributable to trends in energy prices, both regulated (from +18.6% to +25.9%) and unregulated (from +17.0% to +22.2%) – and unprocessed food (from +3.8% to +5.5%); prices for recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +2.6% to +2.9%) and transport-related services (from +0.8% to +1.6%) are also rising at a faster rate.
Shopping baskets are also on the rise
The year-on-year rise is accelerating for both food prices and those for household and personal care products (from +0.9% to +1.7%), the so-called shopping basket – which, incidentally, does not take into account high fuel prices – and for frequently purchased goods (from +4.3% to +5.3%), which do take high fuel prices into account. This is therefore a sign that energy price rises are beginning to spread to other products as well: in September, ‘core inflation’ – calculated excluding energy and fresh food (the most volatile items) – rose from +1.5% to +1.7%, as did the figure excluding energy alone, from +1.7% to +2.0%.
2026 core inflation already at 3.1%
The average inflation rate for 2026 (based on the assumption that the index would remain unchanged for the rest of the year) rose to +3.1 per cent in September, making it virtually certain that the estimate for the whole of 2026 (3.1%) made by the Bank of Italia in its June 2026 macroeconomic projections (which had already been revised upwards).
Surge in diesel and petrol prices
The year-on-year growth rate of regulated energy prices has accelerated (from +18.6% to +25.9%; +5.9% compared with August), driven by prices for town gas and natural gas in the protected market (from +31.0% to +47.2%; +11.6 per cent compared with August), whilst electricity prices in the protected market remain stable (at +9.7 per cent; no month-on-month change). As for unregulated energy products (from +17.0% to +22.2%; +4.4% compared with August), price growth for diesel for transport is accelerating (from +26.7% to +34.9%; +6.0 per cent on August), heating oil (from +31.8 per cent to +38.5 per cent; +4.7 per cent on August), and petrol (from +16.3 per cent to +21.8 per cent; +4.8 per cent on August), town gas and natural gas on the open market (from +11.3 per cent to +16.7 per cent; +5.6 per cent compared with August) and electricity on the free market (from +18.6 per cent to +21.5 per cent; +2.2 per cent compared with August).
Price rises are spreading to food
Overall, the food sector recorded an increase in consumer price inflation year-on-year (from +1.0% to +1.8%; +0.7% compared with August). In particular, unprocessed food saw a marked acceleration (from +3.8% to +5.5%; +2.2% compared with August), driven by price movements in both Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (from +4.0% to +8.4%; +5.8 per cent compared with August) and fruit and nuts (with a reversal in trend from -1.7 per cent to +0.6 per cent; +0.9 per cent compared with August). By contrast, the trend for processed foodstuffs remained slightly negative (from –0.4% to –0.3%; –0.3% compared with August).
