Serbia, the ‘queen of wheat’, is leading the way in food sovereignty

The Arab Spring is now a distant memory, but it has left its mark on the history of the Maghreb and has shown just how important food sovereignty is – particularly when it comes to wheat. Yet historical precedents bring this commodity back to the forefront of geopolitics. The ever-tense Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, which has been blocked since the Russian invasion, offer commercial and geo-economic leverage for the Balkans and for the country at its heart.

As the region’s economic and agricultural powerhouse, Serbia is, in fact, the only country in the area that is fully self-sufficient in cereal production. It is also one of the few on the Old Continent, where France, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary stand out in this regard. With a long-standing agricultural tradition — the agri-food sector accounts for 10 per cent of GDP and around 15 per cent of total exports of goods — Belgrade faces a structural challenge: the significant imbalance between prolific agricultural production and a still-limited processing capacity. Nevertheless, as with vegetable oils, dairy products and most fruit and vegetables, Serbia remains self-sufficient in the production of the majority of cereals — wheat and maize in particular — which are cornerstones of the national diet and food industry, and thus true pillars of the country’s food security. Around 60 per cent of agricultural land is devoted to cereal crops, not only maize and wheat but also barley, sunflowers, soya and sugar beet. According to the most recent figures, covering the period January–May 2026, exports of cereals and cereal products reached €331.7 million, compared with imports of €148.7 million: a trade surplus of €183 million. In the 2025/26 crop year, wheat production alone reached a record 3.7 million tonnes, 28 per cent higher than the previous year, with projections confirming this trend for the coming season as well. Maize, on the other hand, was affected by adverse weather conditions, totalling 3.5 million tonnes — the lowest figure in a decade — but still sufficient to meet domestic demand without having to rely significantly on imports.

That comes as no surprise. As far back as Roman times, the fields of Pannonia were intensively farmed to feed the population, and since then the country’s vast arable plains — primarily Vojvodina — together with a deep-rooted culture of large-scale commercial agriculture, have shaped an economy with a strong agricultural focus. Whilst the country also boasts a strong international presence in other sectors, such as apples, potatoes and, above all, soft fruits, it is the cereals market that has provided the most stable returns over time. In 2024, Serbia ranked 27th among the world’s cereal exporters, out of a total of 194 countries. The sector is dominated by the MK Group, which, through subsidiaries such as Agroglobe and MK Commerce, oversees the entire supply chain, from cultivation to wheat processing, accounting for almost a quarter of the country’s cereal exports. Last March, the group’s chief executive, Mihailo Jankovic, announced investments of between 1 and 2 billion euros by 2030, of which 200 million will be allocated specifically to the agricultural sector.

Serbia’s status as the region’s leading net exporter is largely based on trade with the European Union and other CEFTA countries, in particular Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina: cereal exports to the EU alone are worth 222 million euros, a figure that rises to 430 million when derivatives and milled products are included. Romania, the leading destination in 2024, imported cereals worth just over 119 million euros. Whilst Serbia remains a net importer of other foodstuffs — from animal products to coffee and wine — the contrast with its Balkan neighbours is stark when it comes to cereals: Albania, for example, imports around 60 per cent of its wheat requirements, a dependency exacerbated by disruptions in supply chains following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition to the EU and CEFTA, which continue to account for the bulk of Serbia’s agricultural revenue, Belgrade’s geopolitical strategy of multi-alignment has opened the door to rapidly growing markets such as Saudi Arabia and South Korea, the latter accounting for imports worth around €117 million.

Aside from cereals, Serbia has long been a world leader in the production and export of soft fruits, often ranking first globally for frozen raspberries and blackberries. A series of adverse weather conditions in 2025 — frosts in April, snowfall in May and heatwaves in June — combined with growing competition from regional producers such as Ukraine, caused Belgrade to lose its top position, but historical data confirms the country’s status as one of the main global players: according to the World Bank, in 2023 Serbia was the world’s leading exporter of various types of frozen soft fruits, with raspberries leading the way. With around 20,000 people relying on this sector for their livelihoods, the challenge now is climate-related: infrastructure investment is needed, starting with irrigation, to defend a competitive advantage that is under increasing threat.