Investing in anti-ageing brings social benefits of up to 60 billion

Investing in research on ageing generates returns of up to 30 per cent. This is one of the main conclusions of the Age-It Programme, the largest national partnership on the subject, financed by the National Plan for Recovery and Resilience (Pnrr) and made up of 27 organisations with more than 800 experts from leading universities, research organisations such as CNR, Istat, Inps, Inrca and Neuromed, and companies of national importance.

A cost-effectiveness analysis quantifies the expected social benefits over the next twenty years at EUR 25 billion - in the most conservative scenario, but as high as EUR 60 billion - with an internal rate of return of 25-35%, which is higher than conventional benchmarks for public investments. The results were presented in Rome at the conference 'Ageing Well in a Changing Society', organised by Age-It (Ageing Well in an Ageing Society), in collaboration with Inps. An institute that, as president Gabriele Fava emphasised, 'does not act as a legislator but must be the national infrastructure of the system. Collecting, integrating and interpreting data, reducing information asymmetry and returning useful information to citizens and institutions is an essential part of the social pact'. For this reason, 'longevity is an achievement, but it must be organised,' Fava pointed out. 'If we treat it as a problem we govern it with cuts and emergencies, if we recognise it as a transition we can tackle it with method and vision. Changing perspective is the first step. Longevity and growth are not opposites, but parts of the same strategy'.

"Ageing is not just a demographic challenge, but a structural issue that concerns growth, social cohesion and welfare sustainability,' explained Age-it President and Rector of the University of Florence Alessandra Petrucci. 'Age-It demonstrates that investing in integrated research today means building the foundations for a more aware country, capable of transforming profound change into an opportunity for economic and social development. But the best is yet to come: a new platform called 'Gateway to Age-it' is being developed, a tool that will allow all stakeholders to view the results of our research, made even more easily accessible by AI. Hence also the request to launch for Italy an Italian Institute of Ageing that, in the face of the current non-communicating silos, would promote and harmonise multidisciplinary research on ageing with a systemic public health approach, build on the Age-It experience, and produce a solid future for the Silver Economy'.

Italy is the world leader in ageing: almost 25% (a quarter of the population) are 65 years old or older and 7.7% are 80 years old or older, with an exceptionally high life expectancy - 83.4 years at birth - and persistently low fertility rates, which have reached a record low of 1.18 children per woman in 2024. Without corrective action, by 2060 the reduction of the labour force will result in a decrease of the GDP growth rate by 0.6 per cent. The projected decline in the working-age population to 2050 translates into 8 million fewer people able to work and -5.5 million workers. "If we compare the per capita economic growth rate," warn from Age-It, "in the period 2006-2019 (pre Covid) with that of the coming decades, in the absence of intervention in Italy there will be a further worsening of the decline".

For Claudio Lucifora, Age-It Board member and professor of Political Economy at the Cattolica University in Milan, 'The data put together over three years clearly show that investing in research on ageing is not only necessary, but economically advantageous. With a 25-35% return and benefits that extend over decades, this type of public investment is a strategic choice for the country's future'.
The experts' premise, however, is that there must be a change of pace, which is indispensable in the face of an epochal challenge in the face of which "too little and too late" has been done so far (think of law 33/2023 on active ageing and non-self-sufficiency reform, which arrived 25 years after those of the major EU countries), with a drop in fertility, rising dependency rates, and the precarious quality of ageing. 'Without major interventions,' Lucifora explained, 'we should expect a general deterioration of social economic welfare and an increase in inequalities. Public spending on long-term care alone will increase in the coming decades from 2.5 per cent of GDP to 3.2 per cent. The Age-It Programme was created precisely to respond to these challenges, with mitigation, prevention, and improvement actions also through technologies, reforms, and behaviours'.