Single allowance: obstacles and uncertainties over the future of child support

As a result, the same families who received the most generous monthly payments for their children now find themselves with a higher Isee, which in fact excludes them from other measures anchored to the indicator, such as the gas and electricity bonus or the crèche bonus, and many others. In recent months, the government has declared that it wants to 'correct' this mechanism, which in any case already does not count for the purposes of the single allowance itself (only the amounts in question are already deducted from the Isee for its calculation), by putting its hand to the legislation that regulates the way in which the indicator is defined. As we learn, the technicians of the Ministry of Labour are studying how to exclude the weight of the single allowance from the Isee in the first instance for large families: the laboratory for the family package starts from 1 billion in savings from other labour measures, according to the first indiscretions.

In addition to the Isee knot, the second major obstacle threatening the universal single allowance is the European infringement procedure: in July, Italy was referred to the EU Court for residence requirements.

Legislative Decree 230/2021 establishing the aid provides that applicants must be resident on Italian territory at the time of application and have been resident for at least two years (even if not continuous) in our country or hold a long-term residence permit (at least six months).

The Commission is of the opinion that this scheme is not compatible with European law as it discriminates against mobile workers from other EU member states who are thus not eligible for family benefits. In detail tobe contested is the non-compliance with EU law on the coordination of social security (EC Regulation No 883/2004) and the free movement of workers (EU Regulation No 492/2011 and Article 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union).

To tell the truth, the problem is not so much the cross-border workers hired in Italy, for whom additional financial coverage should in any case be envisaged: this is a defined and reduced group, not to mention the fact that many of them might in any case prefer the measures of their countries of residence (often of a higher amount than the Italian allowance). What makes the corrective measure inapplicable, according to the Government, is rather the risk of a 'cascade effect' that would generate the inclusion among the beneficiaries of mobile workers hired in our country as a result of the bilateral agreements signed with other non-EU countries that could thus request that their treatment be equal to that of EU citizens.

"Today the latest news would be that we are about to abolish the single cheque, that single cheque that we have increased and on which we are giving battle in Europe precisely so that we do not create problems since the Commission tells us that we should also give it to immigrant workers who are in Italy and that in fact means killing the single cheque. We wanted to say that since we still have to write the law, be wary of reconstructions,' said Prime Minister Meloni in a video on X with Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti next to her.

Both the correction to the Isee and the European infringement, finally, undermine the future accounts of the single allowance. The measure for 2024 foresees an allocation of EUR 19.2 billion, of which about EUR 500 million were budgeted to cover the increases introduced with the Budget Law 2023. If in previous years, also as a result of not full adherence on the part of potential beneficiaries, there were savings linked to the measure, which even allowed the government to divert some residual funds elsewhere at the end of 2023, the resources for this year may not even be sufficient. According to the latest Inps data, updated in June (i.e. the first half of the year), 9,862,400 euro have been disbursed so far: assuming an identical expenditure in the second half of the year, it could reach 19.7 billion euro by the end of the year, exceeding the budgeted ceiling.

In addition to the ever-increasing take-up of the measure, it is above all the adjustment - provided for by law - of the contribution to inflation that has caused the expenditure to rise in recent years: in 2023 an increase in the thresholds and amounts of 8.1% was triggered by the 2022 price flares; in 2024 the increase was smaller, but still significant, at 5.4%; for next year it is estimated that there could be an increase of around 1%. The spiral of revaluation caused the minimum measure per child to rise from EUR 50 to around EUR 57 and the maximum measure to touch EUR 190.

It is still too early to say for sure what the fate of the universal single allowance will be. Certainly, for the moment, these three obstacles are forcing the Government to consider the measure with some urgency. The Department for the Family is currently working on the preparation of the new National Plan for Families: the desire to speed up its approval goes precisely in the direction of wanting to review the aid framework. And the Minister for Family and Childhood, Eugenia Roccella, has already declared several times that she "does not want to invest in a measure on which uncertainty hangs" also in the light of European decisions. The manoeuvre site puts the single allowance under fire, the value of which could 'tempt the appetites of the many other measures that are trying to be financed,' even if a note from the Mef denies the desire to intervene: 'Imaginative and without any foundation is the hypothesis of cuts to child allowances in view of the next manoeuvre. The fact remains that a solution must be found before the three unresolved knots come to the boil.