Defence

Sixth-generation fighter, the project of Germany, France and Spain in the credits Days of uncertainty for the Gcap

Marrone (Iai) on the halt to the Future Combat Air System: 'The intention to cooperate on drones and the cloud on fighter aircraft leaves time to be found. If, as seems likely, London keeps its commitments despite domestic political difficulties, the Gcap becomes more attractive to possible partners such as Canada and Germany'

by Andrea Carli

Un modello in scala del Future Combat Air System (FCAS / SCAF) franco-tedesco-spagnolo, il caccia di sesta generazione.  REUTERS

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

After years of preparations the Fcas project, the programme involving France, Germany and Spain for sixth-generation fighter jets, has reached the end credits. According to German government sources, in fact, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (Cdu) and French President Emmanuel Macron have come to the conclusion that the companies Dassault and Airbus cannot agree on the construction of a joint fighter aircraft. On Friday, the two leaders attended the EU-Balkan summit in Montenegro. That was the occasion to take stock, at this point definitive, of the dossier. Macron and Merz agreed that the countries involved in the project known as the Future Combat Air System (or Scaf, 'Système de combat aérien du futur') will continue to develop a drone system and a related data network.

Actually, that the project was on the verge of collapse is not exactly news. For months the Fcas had been in a stalemate, due to unresolved industrial conflicts between Airbus Defence and Dassault. These tensions prevented the transition to the next phase of development. The programme remained stuck in the technology study phase.

Loading...

The sinking of the Future Combat Air System

Launched in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel to strengthen European defence, at an estimated cost of around one hundred billion euros, it saw Spain join the team in 2019. Then it stopped several times due to disputes in planning and design between the French manufacturer Dassault and the Airbus group, which represents German and Spanish interests. From unofficial, now the final halt becomes 'official'. If realised, the Fcas would have been a 'system of systems' in which a piloted fighter would have operated under the cover of drone swarms and a combat cloud.

... and the uncertainties over the Gcap involving Italia, the UK and Japan

For one European sixth-generation fighter project that closes, another experiences days of uncertainty. This is the case with theGcap (Global Combat Air Programme), the programme involving the UK, Italia and Japan. It is developed by the Edgewing joint venture between BAE Systems, Leonardo and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co. Ltd. On 30 June, the £686 million bridging contract awarded in April by the Gcap Agency to Edgewing, the industrial joint venture created to lead the design and development of the aircraft, will expire. This bridging contract funds key design and engineering activities.

By that date, the UK Ministry of Defence must approve the Defence Investment Plan, an expenditure planning document that authorises multi-year funds for the Gcap. BAE Systems has warned that if the go-ahead for the DIP does not come by the end of the month, more than 4,000 engineers and technicians - including about 3,000 Italians at Leonardo sites in Turin, Rome, and other locations - risk being assigned to other programmes. According to sources close to the dossier, the UK's green light for the plan will eventually arrive in time.

Marrone (Iai): now the Gcap could attract possible partners such as Canada and Germany

"At this point, it is crucial that London puts an end to its delays in financing its share of investment in the technological development of the GCAP, given that Italia and Japan have already done their share," notes Alessandro Marrone, head of the 'Defence, Security and Space' programme at IAI, Istituto Affari Internazionali. "If, as seems likely, London keeps its commitments despite domestic political difficulties, the GCAP becomes more attractive to possible partners such as Canada and Germany, who do not want to be dependent on a US-made aircraft in the future and recognise the benefits of cooperation with like-minded and reliable countries."

Marrone has no doubts: 'The announcement of the divorce between France and Germany on the next-generation fighter marks the end of the FCAS project,' he emphasises. 'The intent to cooperate on drones and the fighter-related cloud leaves time to be found,' he adds, 'considering that nine years of efforts on the core platform have led to this failure. In a 2025 IAI report on the GCAP we were already talking about the possibility of a failure of the Franco-German project, because for experts the divergence between Airbus and Dassault was clear, the latter without any positive experience of European cooperation on fighter aircraft'.

What could happen now? What will Berlin do? And Paris?

Germany seems to want to develop its defence capabilities more autonomously. This orientation is part of a sharp increase in German military expenditure, which is expected to exceed EUR 100 billion already in 2026 and reach around EUR 153 billion per year by 2029.

"Berlin might consider joining the Gcap given the decades of positive aeronautical cooperation with Italia and the UK first on the Tornado and then on the Eurofighter. Merz and Meloni have already talked about this months ago,' notes Marrone. 'France will certainly go for a new national fighter produced by Dassault, as in past decades.

Copyright reserved ©

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti