Space and diving: 'Italia in the front row. Hybrid threats are very likely'

In a context marked by the war of aggression against Ukraine and the intensification of hybrid and cyber threats, space and underwater are acquiring an increasingly decisive role in the global defence balance. Starlink, the network of some 7 thousand satellites of Elon Musk is a crucial communication system. But security also comes from the depths. Submarine cables, as shown by what has happened in the past months in the Baltic Sea, are increasingly strategic targets.

Italia, emphasises Karolina Muti, head of research in the 'Defence, Security and Space' programme at the Iai, the Istituto Affari Internazionali, is at the forefront. "Our country," he explains, "excels in the field of space exploration, both human and robotic, earth observation, and sensor technology, including for defence. As far as the underwater dimension is concerned, the music does not change: 'the National Underwater Dimension Pole in La Spezia, coordinated by the Italian Navy, plays a role as an accelerator in the underwater field in terms of innovation and technological development'.

Are the seabed and orbits at risk from threats and hybrid attacks? Are there cases that have affected Italy? 'There are cases that have affected our country,' Muti replies, 'and hybrid threats in these two dimensions are unfortunately very likely. However, this is due to a question of attribution, which means that it is more difficult, both in space and underwater, to attribute an attack to a state or even a non-state actor. The second complication, which therefore makes the hybrid attack very convenient, concerns the type of intentional action'. "Today in the Baltic Sea, for example, it is very easy to sail by dragging an anchor on the seabed and cutting a submarine cable. And then having the opportunity to say that it was not an intentional act. When we know that it is. As far as Italia is concerned, cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in general are also on the rise in these two areas'.

The game is also and above all played out in the field of skills. 'We need more Stem graduates and right now it is a gap that puts us in a bit of a bind,' observes the Iai researcher. However, we manage to be absolutely in the forefront in this field'. Stem skills and professions play a central role as the link between strategic vision and concrete application. Weapon systems are increasingly sophisticated, technologies advanced. Space and underwater, Muti concludes, 'are hostile environments, difficult for human beings, where only technological innovation and progress have opened up opportunities, increasing the strategic value of orbits and the seabed for our economies and our security'.