Market Day

Wall Street hits record high of 40,000 points but closes just below (-0.10%). Europe weak, Milan resists with banks

The new Dow Jones records do not affect the Old Continent's stock exchanges, which are waiting for the EU inflation data due on 17 May. Euro remains at $1.08, oil rises. Spread closes down at 130 points

by Enrico Miele and Giorgia Colucci

Aggiornato il 16 maggio 2024, ore 17:36

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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The new records of Wall Street do not affect the European stock exchanges and so, while overseas the Dow Jones index touches for the first time the "symbolic" threshold of 40 thousand points (to close then negative, Dow Jones -0.10% at 39.869.38 points, the Nasdaq -0.26% to 16,698.32 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.21% to 5,297.10 points), the Old Continent's stock markets closed on a weak note as they awaited the EU inflation figure on 17 May.

At the end of the day, however, Milan's FTSE MIB supported by banks remained positive. Still in the spotlight was the price development: import prices in the US rose more than expected by 0.9 per cent in April, the biggest increase in two years. The figure did not, however, dampen investors' and economists' confidence in a 0.5 per cent cut in the cost of money by the Fed this year, including two cuts. Encouraging signals also arrived on the ECB front. At a press conference in Lisbon, the governor of Portugal's central bank Centeno said that the drop in inflation towards 2% 'is real and we are confident that the interest rate of monetary policy will come down'. Apart from Piazza Affari, the other Old Continent indices, from Frankfurt (DAX 30) to Paris (CAC 40), via London (FT-SE 100) and Madrid (IBEX 35).

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Wall Street Dow Jones hits record high at 40,000 points

Wall Street continued to rally, with the DJ touching 40,000 points for the first time since the record close on 15 May, a sign of traders' optimism about the interest rate cut and also thanks to the enthusiasm generated by recent developments and the prospects for artificial intelligence. Credit again goes to the weak monthly increase in April of consumer prices, which on an annual basis slowed from 3.5% to 3.4%, in line with estimates. Today, however, import prices posted their biggest increase in two years, a sign that progress is still needed on inflation.

Milan holds with banks, Eni slides on sale of Mef share

Piazza Affari was buoyed throughout the session by purchases on banks, with Banca Pop Er and Banca Mps topped the FTSE MIB, where they were rewarded by speculation on possible M&A and analysts' ratings on the strength of the entire sector. The 'golden palm' goes instead to Leonardo - Finmeccanica, while the gain of Snam after its first-quarter results, which closed with a 11.3 per cent rise in profit to €335 million. Well-bought Ferrari along with the rest of the luxury goods. Slipping instead was the Eni group, which paid duty after the Treasury has perfected the disposal of 2.8% of the share capital through an "accelerated book building" that allowed the MEF to place the securities at 14.855 euro for a total countervalue of approximately 1.4 billion euro. As a result of the transaction, the stake held by the ministry in the oil company will drop from 4.8% to around 2% of the share capital. Sales also on Erg, Recordati and Stellantis which lost ground in the wake of the European auto sector.

Le Borse oggi, 16 maggio 2024

U.S. unemployment benefits above estimates again

In the US, meanwhile, the number of workers claiming unemployment benefits for the first time in the first week of May fell by 10,000 to 222,000, according to the Labour Department; expectations were for a figure of 221,000. Also in May, conditions in the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia area deteriorated, but still remained buoyant. The index calculated by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve fell from 15.5 to 4.5 points, against expectations for a slowdown to 8 points. This was while data on building sites and building permits in the US in April fell short of analysts' expectations: the index measuring the start of new construction rose 5.7 percent from the previous month to an annualised rate of 1.360 million units (but economists had expected an increase to 1.421 million).

ECB: Centeno, inflation down, rates will soon fall

Eurozone inflation is steadily falling towards 2 per cent and the European Central Bank's interest rates will definitely start to decrease. Portugal's central bank governor Mario Centeno said. "The approach of the inflation rate to 2 per cent is real and we are certain that the interest rate of monetary policy will fall," he told a press conference in Lisbon. "The market expects the interest rate reduction to start in June," he added, "but I do not intend to give an advance on the decision. Centeno also reminded that the rate will be decided on the basis of the data available at each meeting and that he prefers gradual cuts rather than a sudden sharp cut.

Spread closes down to 130 points, yield rises to 3.75 %

The spread between the BTp and Bund closed lower. At the end of the session, the yield spread between the benchmark ten-year BTp and the German ten-year Bund stood at 130 points from 131 points on the eve of the session. Rising, however, was the yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp, which ended trading at 3.75 per cent from 3.73 per cent at the previous close.

Euro weak at $1.08 after eve's thump

On the currency market, the euro stood at $1.087 ($1.087 on the eve). The single currency is worth 168.78 yen (168.35), while the dollar/yen is at 155.25 (154.85), while the natural gas in Amsterdam is up 1.5 per cent at EUR 30.2 per MWh. "The deceleration in inflation, highlighted by the data released on Wednesday, was expected," point out analysts at ActivTrades, "but it still had some effect on the financial markets, as such forecasts have been proven wrong on previous occasions. Against this backdrop, there was an adjustment in market expectations, with the prospect of two rate cuts in 2024 gaining more traction, leading to lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar'.

Oil price floats just above parity

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Finally, the oil was up slightly, despite the IEA cutting its forecast for demand in 2024. "After hitting a low since last 13 March at $81.08 a barrel, Brent crude recovered ground on Wednesday evening after data on US crude inventories indicated a decline for the second week in a row," Mps analysts concluded.

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