Streaming, in Italy market towards maturity and for each household 2.3 subscriptions

The arrival of Hbo Max in Italy is not just any old debut, but a step in a phase of clear maturity of the streaming market. A market that is still growing, but without the euphoria of the beginnings. It is no coincidence that, in the analyses circulating among operators and investors, the entry of the service is already read as part of a broader process of consolidation: Hbo Max is indicated as a new competitor destined, however, to be acquired in the space of a few months by Netflix or Paramount Skydance depending on how the battle for control of Warner Bros Discovery underway in the United States will end.

The underlying question is now clear and concerns the sustainability of supply: is there room in our market for so many operators? Data collected by Sensemakers suggest that space exists, but it is not expanding. "From our research and also from some evidence of Auditel data, a picture emerges of a phase of saturation of subscriptions to paid streaming services," explains CEO Fabrizio Angelini. "The price reduction operations with the introduction of advertising-supported formulas and those to counter the phenomenon of password sharing have already expressed their greatest potential. Growth will continue at a slower pace in the future where the phenomena of substitution of offers in search of cost savings and churn rates between operators will become increasingly strong".

The picture is one of a market that has stopped running and has started to choose. "Currently, half of Italian households and 80 per cent of those with access to broadband connections have subscribed to at least one paid streamer service". But the real balancing point is another: "The number of paid streaming services that households are on average willing to pay for is 2.3, a figure that has been stable for years, as has the maximum propensity to spend, which oscillates between 25 and 27 euros per month".

Two point three subscriptions: one stable and one variable. It is on that decimal that the competition is consumed. Auditel, which from 2022 also detects the so-called 'unrecognised traffic' - where part of the streaming consumption falls - reports that in 2025 the reach on the average day fell by 0.8%, while in prime time the increase stopped at 0.6%. Time in front of the screen is not growing: it is changing owners.

In this context, the arrival of Hbo Max is less a stand-alone bet and more a pawn in a bigger game. The question, in fact, immediately turns to possible integrations: what then are the potential benefits of the integration of Warner Bros Discovery's streaming services by Netflix or Paramount in our country? Angelini looks at the industrial logic: 'In an increasingly saturated market where the focus will progressively shift from the conquest of new customers to the retention of existing ones and the increase of their spending power, the operation does indeed have great strategic value. Apart from the acquisition of the intellectual property rights to many 'Hero' titles, the breadth of the library is the primary factor in retention and increasing engagement levels'.