‘The reconstruction of Syria: a fragmented market in which Italia can bring its pragmatism to bear’

Can Syria be regarded as a single economic market today?

‘At present, Syria should not be regarded as a single economic market. The north of the country is now deeply integrated with Turkey. Turkish companies are active in the region, the Turkish lira is in circulation in some areas, and part of the electricity supply comes from Turkey. Aleppo, with its long industrial and entrepreneurial tradition, is also benefiting from the return of Syrians who spent the war years abroad. Southern Syria is influenced by tribal and commercial networks that extend as far as Jordan. The east follows a different trajectory, due to the Kurdish presence and the complex dynamics linked to security and the region’s energy resources. Damascus, meanwhile, remains the country’s political and symbolic centre. It is also the image that the government presents to the international community. Outside the capital, however, the situation is far more fragmented. This regional diversity means that international investors will need to adopt local strategies. A business model that works in Aleppo may not be suitable for Damascus, the south or the east of the country.”

Could Lebanon benefit from Syria’s reconstruction?

‘Lebanese businesses have long envisaged that the future reconstruction of Syria would present a major economic opportunity. This expectation may prove to be overly optimistic. It is likely that priority will be given to Syrian firms, whilst Turkish and Gulf companies could gain preferential access thanks to the political influence of their respective governments. Some Lebanese businesspeople may also be viewed with suspicion due to their past ties to the Assad regime. Lebanon’s financial crisis poses a further constraint. Its banks are not in a position to provide the necessary funding for large-scale reconstruction programmes. Syria, too, has changed during the years of war. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have gained professional experience in Europe, the Gulf, Turkey and the United States. They have returned, or may return in the future, bringing with them expertise in the fields of finance, engineering, medicine, technology and entrepreneurship. Syria, therefore, no longer depends on Lebanese expertise to the extent that it did in the past.’

Does Italia have a reputation problem in Syria?

‘Shortly before the fall of the Assad government, Rome had moved towards re-establishing relations with Damascus. This decision was based on the assumption that the regime would remain in power. Today, some Syrians view that choice as a premature normalisation of relations with the previous government. This is a manageable problem. A limited number of initiatives aimed at rebuilding trust could demonstrate that Italia has turned a new page and is ready to establish constructive relations with the new Syria. The European position as a whole will also be decisive. It is likely that Brussels will make significant financial commitment conditional on issues such as political inclusion, transitional justice and the protection of minorities. European companies will also need guarantees regarding the protection of investments, profits and contractual rights. For major projects, such as the development initiatives planned for Damascus, these guarantees will be essential.”

In which sectors could Italian companies compete?

‘Despite these difficulties, Italia has a number of advantages. Italian companies have demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt in Lebanon and other regional markets. Italian products already have a strong presence in sectors ranging from industrial equipment to energy, from vehicles to household goods, and right through to infrastructure. Companies such as Eni could potentially contribute to the development of the energy sector, although American and regional competitors are already establishing a foothold. Other opportunities could arise in telecommunications, specialised construction, manufacturing systems, engineering, restoration and urban services. Initially, Italia should not focus on high-exposure projects that are entirely dependent on Syria’s political stability. A more prudent approach would be to focus on sectors in which Italian companies have a clear competitive advantage and where financial exposure can be managed. The option to withdraw or scale back operations should be an integral part of the investment strategy from the outset.”

How important is Italia’s history in the region? Can Italian pragmatism translate into influence?

‘Even the absence of a direct colonial past in Syria can be an advantage for Italy. Unlike France, the country does not carry the same political and historical weight in the Levant. Italian diplomacy is often perceived as more flexible and less tied to public statements on political values. This pragmatism must not translate into indifference towards corruption, human rights or legal risks. It can, however, help Italia to establish pragmatic relations with Syrian institutions, focusing on economic objectives that are realistically achievable. One proposal could be to map the Syrian community that has lived and worked in Italia over the last decade. Syrian entrepreneurs, academics, engineers and professionals could become important intermediaries between the two countries. An Italian-Syrian business council could help to develop these networks, identify reliable partners and strengthen Italia’s position both within Syrian institutions and in Syrian society. France, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon have already promoted similar initiatives. Italia could also draw on cultural diplomacy. Design, architecture, archaeology, education, restoration, the arts and the creative industries are fields in which the country possesses internationally recognised expertise. These forms of collaboration would offer a more enduring foundation than purely transactional commercial relationships.”

How should Italia invest strategically in the region?

‘Syria’s future will have consequences far beyond its borders. Its stability will affect Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and the entire eastern Mediterranean. For a country like Italia, which is seeking to strengthen its Mediterranean policy, engagement in Syria should therefore not be viewed merely as a quest for contracts. It is also an investment in regional stability. The opportunities are significant, but so too are the risks. Italian businesses will need legal safeguards, reliable local partners and carefully limited financial exposure. The Italian government, for its part, will need to rebuild political relations and coordinate its initiatives with the European Union. Syria is not yet a normal market. It remains fragmented, institutionally weak and politically uncertain. However, those countries that manage to build credible relationships today could find themselves in a favourable position should reconstruction gather pace. For Italia, the most effective strategy may be neither disengagement nor an immediate rush into large-scale projects. Instead, it could consist of a gradual approach, based on diplomacy, diaspora networks, cultural influence and carefully selected commercial sectors.”