Banking speculation is now focusing on BPM amid talk of a relaunch of MPS and interest in UniCredit

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Taken by surprise by the takeover bid from Intesa Sanpaolo -Unipol on Banca Monte Paschi Siena , Banco Bpm remains one of the key players in the game of Risk, with analysts expecting further moves to shake up the sector.

The first to suggest that there is still a long way to go are the analysts at S&P, who cite both Ca’ de Sass sul Monte’s offer and BPM’s proposal for a merger on equal terms: ‘Although the potential outcomes of these deals are uncertain, further deals or transactions in the Italian banking sector could emerge in the coming months’. The rating agency sees “increasing consolidation in the Italian banking system” on the horizon, with “further mergers and acquisitions, as the major banks seek to increase their scale to meet future challenges”.

It remains to be seen whether and how politicians will respond, given that in the past the Meloni government has intervened using its ‘golden power’ to defend BPM from the takeover bid by Unicredit (although this time there are differences of opinion between the Lega and FdI regarding Intesa’s OPAS). But the game is now primarily a financial one. Analysts at Deutsche Bank are more explicit; they have a ‘buy’ rating on BPM shares and do not rule out a revised bid from CEO Giuseppe Castagna: ‘Despite a difficult position, Banco BPM retains several options, including the possibility of a counter-bid for MPS’. The Milan-based bank could “decide to continue discussions with the MPS board and attempt to structure an independent bid to compete” with that of Intesa Sanpaolo. Obviously, “the support of shareholders, with Crédit Agricole as the main counterparty, is essential to proceed with a counter-offer”. Not to mention that BPM remains a shareholder in Monte dei Paschi with a stake of around 3 per cent and “has every interest in maximising the value of its asset in any scenario”. The final option is to evaluate alternative M&A opportunities, as an agreement with Crédit Agricole Italia “could generate synergies and value”.

According to other observers, however, UniCredit could make a comeback, as it ‘might proceed with the bid for Commerz and assess what to do next in Italia, next year or in the medium term, depending on whether, for example, BPM remains an independent entity and whether an agreement is reached with its main shareholder, Crédit Agricole’, as Barclays notes. Meanwhile, the market is in turmoil.