EU parliament votes on Ilaria Salis' immunity: here's why Forza Italia could save her

The fate of Ilaria Salis will be decided by the vote of the 188 popular MEPs (including the 9 from Forza Italia) sitting in the Euro Chamber. Figures in hand, the MEP elected in the ranks of the Avs (detained in a Hungarian maximum security prison for almost a year and from where she was released after her election in Strasbourg) will only avoid returning to trial in Budapest if at least one third of them vote with the progressives in favour of immunity, during the next plenary. The day of truth will most likely be on 7 October. Playing in Salis's favour are the constant attacks by the Hungarian government that could compact the wing of the populars that in the past has fought for the ouster of Orban himself (who called Salis, even without quoting her, a 'terrorist') from the EPP.

The Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani is convinced that the Avs MEP is not a terrorist: 'I don't have to comment on the choices of other states,' the deputy prime minister said, 'I don't think Salis is a terrorist. She has very different ideas from mine, there is a trial concerning her, but I don't think she is a terrorist'. While Giovanni Donzelli of FdI is harsh: 'I believe that if Salis has made her choices with courage, she must waive her parliamentary immunity. If she does not waive it, Parliament must vote to waive parliamentary immunity for Salis'.

The first step will be the vote on Tuesday 23 September in the Legal Affairs Commission on the text of the rapporteur, the popular Spaniard Adrián Vázquez Lázara. The papers are not public, however informed sources assure that he should propose the waiver of immunity, according to the principle that this institution protects elected representatives from offences allegedly committed during the parliamentary mandate, and not before. The numbers in the Commission, if the EPP votes compactly on the report, would be 14 against immunity, and 11 in favour. In the event of a tie, the report would be rejected. The vote will not be binding. The decisive one, as recalled, is that of the House, by a simple majority of those present.

However, the Commission will be called upon to express its opinion on the same day on another case, also closely linked to Budapest, namely whether or not to grant immunity to the Hungarian popular Péter Magyar, leader of the opposition to Orban. The hope of Salis' supporters is that the EPP, called upon to defend one of its own against Orban, will do the same with the Italian. It should be recalled that Orban's government asked for the waiver of immunity to Ilaria Salis on 10 October last year, the day after the debate on the Hungarian presidency of the Council, when the Avs MEP had openly criticised the Hungarian executive. For her supporters, it is blatant confirmation that this is an entirely political, persecutory demand.

In the event of a loss of immunity, the government led by Viktor Orban could issue an international arrest warrant. The person directly concerned does not hide her concern: 'These are difficult days,' Salis said in an interview with Repubblica, 'I trust my colleagues who are called to vote on immunity, but yes, I am worried. The scenario that could open up is terrifying. If the parliament were to lift my immunity, my trial in Budapest would start again: a farce trial, with a sentence already written, carried out in the absence of democratic guarantees. A trial in which it is impossible to defend myself and in which I would risk up to 24 years in prison, a disproportionate sentence compared to the facts I am accused of. I could be extradited to Hungary, returned to those who dragged me to court on a leash and in chains, to those who kept me in prison for more than fifteen months in inhuman conditions'.