Towards Europe

The EU umbrella guarantee for Spain's growth

GDP growth exceeds that of the three largest economies, harmony with Brussels has given the country a credibility licence

from our correspondent Luca Veronese

Il premier spagnolo Pedro Sanchez

3' min read

3' min read

BARCELONA - "To explain the resilience of the Spanish economy and understand why its growth is higher than that of the other major European economies at this stage, one has to look at Europe," says Pedro Videla, economist at the Iese Business School.

'Europe for Spain has been a protection, a guarantee of credibility and now,' Videla adds, 'it is a propeller of development: let's look at the last fifteen years, in the international financial crisis, in the Eurozone crisis, in the face of the collapse of the Iberian banking system, Madrid has always been able to count on the support of the EU and the protection of the ECB in the financial markets. And the same has happened in the pandemic and then in the recovery investments: also through the budgetary freedom that the EU has granted to foster recovery'.

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For reasons also linked to its political history, Spain - in its institutions and in its population - has always been very much in tune with the European Union project: no Eurosceptic party has ever been part of the majority coalition; and governments - whether right-wing like those of the popular Mariano Rajoy or left-wing like with the socialist Pedro Sanchez, still in office - have always done everything to maintain relaxed relations with Brussels even in difficult times, adding European aspirations of principle to the economic benefits of European policies.

The latest data

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In the first quarter of this year, Spain's economy - according to data from the INE, the National Statistics Office - grew by 0.7 per cent compared to the previous three months: an expansion well above expectations and more than double the increase in GDP recorded in the Eurozone, significantly higher than that of Germany, France and Italy. "The last two years in Spain have seen greater dynamism in exports, private and public consumption, which have grown by 24.1, 10.7 and 5.2 percentage points respectively," says Rafael Domenech of Bbva Research.

A strong boost came from the revival of tourist flows from abroad after the pandemic and Spain's status as a safe destination, they explain at INE, recalling that tourism is now worth more than 13% of GDP. "The energy crisis has had a limited impact in Spain; the implementation of the NextGenerationEU European funds has also played a role; a further element," Domenech argues, "has to do with immigration, which has allowed the Spanish population to grow by 2.5% in two years, almost two points above the EU total.

The Outlook

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The growth trend above the European average is set to continue: according to the IMF, Spanish GDP will increase by 1.9% this year and 2.1% in 2025. 'But we are not talking about miracles or secret recipes,' Videla explains, 'we must also consider that the Spanish economy in the Covid crisis had a more severe collapse than almost all other European economies and that this is why its recovery is now more pronounced and appears more surprising. The signs that I consider most encouraging come from the ability of companies to export and the ability of entire sectors, mature but evolving, I am thinking of car manufacturing, to adapt to the new demands of international markets'.

The unknowns

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Despite the better-than-expected recovery, Spain still has to solve some structural problems. 'The advantage over the continent's other economies,' Domenech continues, 'may soon run out and so far has not been sufficient to narrow the gap in GDP per capita and productivity, the only engine capable of generating sustained growth over time.

In a recent report, the EU Commission emphasised the progress made by Spain with the social and labour policies introduced by Sanchez's left-wing government: 'The reform of the labour market has significantly reduced fixed-term contracts and precariousness', while the increase in the minimum income has helped 'eliminate some inequalities'. But the Commission also pointed out that the unemployment rate remains high: close to 12%, twice the European average.


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