Furniture: the global market remains stable
CSIL’s analysis and forecasts for the international furniture trade. Growth is slowing, but Italia remains the world’s fourth-largest exporter
Progress is slow, but progress it is. Or, at the very least, the war in the Middle East, US protectionist policies and the many global conflicts and geopolitical tensions will not bring the global furniture market to a standstill.
Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
Forecasts by the CSIL (Centre for Light Industry Studies) predict a slowdown in growth for 2026, both globally and in emerging and advanced economies, caused primarily by the effects of the war in Iran, but growth is nevertheless expected to reach 3.1 per cent overall (in real terms), rising to 3.9 per cent for the first group of countries and 1.8 per cent for the second group. As for 2027, growth is forecast to be in the region of 3.2 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively.
Italia remains firmly in fourth place among the world’s leading exporting countries – although China’s figures are on a completely different scale – behind Vietnam and Poland, but ahead of Germany. As for importing countries, the United States remains in first place, followed by Germany, the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands.
The impact of US tariffs
In 2025, CSIL analysts explain, global trade policy was characterised ‘by growing uncertainty due to shifting tariff policies, geopolitical tensions and evolving trade relations between the major economies. Businesses have faced difficulties in planning investments and managing supply chains due to the unpredictability of regulatory changes and the risk of new trade barriers’.
The impact of the tariffs was, however, less than initially anticipated. Households and businesses brought forward their consumption and investment in anticipation of higher tariffs, providing a temporary boost to global economic activity in the first half of the year. Trade flows were partly redirected towards third countries.
