The Vannacci case pushes the majority: why the electoral law is being accelerated

If on the one hand there is a slowdown on the reform of the mayoral election system in force in large cities since 1993, which aims to make the ballots residual, on the other hand there is an acceleration on the overcoming of the current Rosatellum in view of the political elections: the proportional system with a majority prize that gives victory and governability to the first-place winner, even by a whisker, must be ready immediately after the referendum in order to get the approval of at least one of the two chambers before the summer. Because what is certain is that Vannacci's new party, estimated in the polls at around 3%, has convinced even the most reluctant in the centre-right to remove the uninominal constituencies of the Rosatellum (37% of the total number of seats), a system with which even before the split in the Lega Nord house the election result would have been a probable 'non-win'. Many in the majority remember the case of 1996, when they voted with the single-member constituencies of the Mattarellum: Pino Rauti's Fiamma Tricolore took 1.7% in the Chamber of Deputies and 2.3% in the Senate and therefore did not enter Parliament, but this was enough to make Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right lose many constituencies, leading to its defeat.

Said, done. That the centre-right has never looked favourably on ballots in big cities is common knowledge. And now, after months of heated debate in the Senate's Constitutional Affairs Committee chaired by Melonian Alberto Balboni, the law that kills ballots after 33 years is ready for the Chamber with Balboni himself as rapporteur. The quorum to be elected in municipalities with more than 15 thousand inhabitants is lowered from 50% to 40%, thus making the second round a residual hypothesis, while the 'prize' in terms of seats in the municipal council remains at 60% to guarantee governability. Even if the motivation is that of contrasting the growing abstention, the political objective is clear: to put the centre-left in difficulty, historically more reluctant to agree on a common candidate in the first round (the case of Rome at the last elections in 2021 is striking, with the current mayor Roberto Gualtieri second with 27%, followed by Carlo Calenda and Virginia Raggi both around 20%: electorates then recomposed at the ballot, won by Gualtieri with over 60%).

But the news is something else: instead of planning to arrive in the Chamber at the beginning of March with the declared intention of using the new system as early as the spring municipal elections, the proposal by the chairman of the Dem senators, Francesco Boccia, to 'delay' it until 14 April was passed in the group leaders' meeting, with the decisive role of the president of the Chamber, Ignazio La Russa. That is, now out of maximum time for the second reading in the House before the municipal elections. The Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's desire not to force her hand by changing the rules in the run-up to the vote in the midst of the referendum campaign on the separation of careers, thus exposing herself to new accusations of 'authoritarianism' from the opposition, has certainly played a role. According to parliamentary sources, there is also attention on the issue from the Quirinal. The big spoils, moreover, will be in the 2027 municipal elections (Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples), while in spring only a few and smaller cities will go to the vote (the largest municipalities are Venice and Reggio Calabria). Last but not least, an outstretched hand to the oppositions and in particular to the PD is useful in view of the electoral reform for the policies.

And here we come to the other side of the coin. If for the municipalities it is de facto postponed to 2007, for the reform of the current Rosatellum the time is short: according to the soft low rules established by the Council of Europe it is not appropriate to change the electoral system in the last year of the legislature. Any changes must therefore be approved well in advance of the elections to give citizens and candidates time to understand their effects and to avoid being exposed to the usual accusation of 'authoritarianism', especially since the new electoral law will in all likelihood be approved with a vote of confidence to avoid the traps of franchi tiratori in the secret ballot provided for by the Chamber's regulations. The goal is to get the yes of at least one of the two chambers by the summer.

The next few weeks will therefore be crucial for untangling the knots within the majority and then submitting the text, after the referendum on justice, to the opposition. The scheme, despite the Vannacci cyclone, remains the known one: proportional with a 3% barrier agreed with Carlo Calenda (raising it to 4% risks pushing Action back into the orbit of the wide camp) and a majority prize of 55% of the seats for those who exceed 40% (or 42%) of the votes. As for the indication of the name of the premier candidate on the ballot paper, dear to Meloni and opposed by the League and especially by Forza Italia, at the moment Plan B prevails, i.e. the obligation to indicate the head of the coalition when presenting the programme. A solution that would in any case create havoc in the broad camp, forced to choose a leader. The important thing is to do it soon.