S&P Global Ratings rates Italian debt today: previous revisions and future prospects

In a global macroeconomic and geopolitical framework that remains extremely complex, there are many elements of concern, from the conflicts still ongoing, Ukraine in the lead, to the opening of new fronts of tension, such as the Greenland dossier, the situation in Iran and the trade tug-of-war. Within this framework, Italy awaits the judgement of the rating agencies. The first, that ofS&P Global Ratings, will arrive in the next few hours. The rating agency sees Italy growing by 0.8% this year and 0.9% next year (two more revisions are scheduled on 15 May and 13 November). This will be followed by Fitch Ratings, on 13 March (then 11 September), Moody's, on 25 March (then 25 September) and Dbrs, on 17 April (then 16 October).

For Italy, the situation does not appear critical and, compared to the past, the wait for the agencies' 'judgement' seems more serene, all the more so since Italy is experiencing a certain stability of government that has been repeatedly appreciated by the rating agencies (Giorgia Meloni's Executive is the fifth longest-lasting in the history of Italy since 1946). As mentioned, however, growth is slow and the public debt, which in 2024 stood at 135.3 per cent of GDP, had risen to 137.8 per cent by the end of the third quarter of 2025, according to the most recent Eurostat findings. It was precisely on the trajectory of the debt that S&P Global Ratings had insisted, when in October confirmed our country's 'BBB+' rating (the level to which it had been raised in the previous review in spring 2025) and left the outlook at 'stable', while some expected an improvement to 'positive'. The government 'has been disciplined on the budget, but now more effort is needed on debt', the agency had said, postponing a possible promotion to a later date. It remains to be seen whether the timing will be right today.

On 21 November Moody's decided to raise Italy's public debt rating to Baa2 (from Baa3) with a stable outlook. On 19 September, Fitch raised Italy's rating to 'BBB+', with the outlook changed to 'stable'. On that occasion, Fitch based the change of rating on a decline in the deficit to 3.1% of GDP this year, in a dynamic "supported by structural improvements on the revenue side and tight expenditure control". In the view expressed by the agency's analysts, this development is also the result of "a stable political environment" and "continued reform momentum", which together with the "reduction in external imbalances further improve Italy's credit indicators". The combination of these factors "mitigates the risks stemming from the still high public debt and growing external challenges", and allows BTp bonds to climb the triple B scale despite the fact that the other countries in the same area of the ranking show an average debt-to-GDP ratio of 57.3%, i.e. well below half of Italy's levels. Going back even further, in April, S&P Global Ratings had predicted a move from 'BBB' to 'BBB+' with a stable outlook, and Moody's had followed suit a month later with an improvement (from stable to positive) in the outlook alongside the Baa3 rating.