Toti case, why the leadership of Liguria triggers a clash in the centre-right

Should Toti hold out or resign over the investigation in Liguria? "It's his choice, but I think it's premature now, you have to wait, anyway, he has to choose whether to continue or resign." Fi's number one, Antonio Tajani, is just the latest of the centre-right leaders to be cautious about an early return to the polls in Liguria. On the one hand, with the investigations still ongoing, there is the risk that a vote perhaps in the autumn would be counterproductive for the coalition. On the other, there are tensions between Fratelli d'Italia and Lega. The former aspire to conquer the first region in the north with one of their men, with an eye on the biggest prey, namely Veneto. On the other is the League, which is currently the strongest party in the regional administration, but which risks being reduced in size by an early vote.

Giovanni Toti was still part of Forza Italia (he was in the wing that most looked to the League) when he first became governor of Liguria in 2015. In 2020, when he was reconfirmed, he had already left Fi to form his centrist formation "Cambiamo!". He is now part of Noi moderati, the centrist wing of the centre-right led by Maurizio Lupi, which for the European elections has made a pact to form a united list with Forza Italia.

It is no coincidence that among the most strenuous defenders of Toti was the leader of the League Matteo Salvini. The League is currently the strongest party in the centre-right majority in Liguria, also expressing the vice-president of the region Alessandro Piana. But compared to 2020, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. At the 2022 political elections Fratelli d'Italia jumped to 24% in the region, more than doubling the League (9.3%), while at the 2020 regional elections the balance of power was reversed (17% the League and 10.8% Fdi). The League could hardly express its own gubernatorial candidate supported by the whole coalition now. It could also support an Fdi candidate, in the hope of diverting the Melonians' sights away from Veneto, where they will vote in 2025. But Fdi's plans seem to be different.

Giorgia Meloni's party finds itself in an anomalous situation. Although it is widely the first party in the coalition, it only administers Abruzzo and Marche (to which Lazio could also be added, since the governor Francesco Rocca, albeit as an independent, is very close to the premier) with one man, out of a total of thirteen regions (plus the autonomous province of Trento) governed by the centre-right. No region therefore in the north has an Fdi president. Liguria could be a first step towards restoring the balance in the coalition. However, there are two unknowns. Fdi does not yet have a strong name to spend in Liguria (it could eventually converge on a civic). Moreover, with the investigations on Toti still ongoing, a victory in Liguria is not a foregone conclusion.

Not least because Fratelli d'Italia has made no secret of the fact that it is aiming at a much bigger prey than Liguria: Veneto, where votes will be cast next year. Here there is already a Melonian candidate in pectore: Luca De Carlo, president of the Senate agriculture commission. Also because, with the failure of the attempt to allow a third term for governors, the current Legahist president Luca Zaia, although on top of the consensus, will not be able to stand again. However, it seems difficult for the League to give it to FdI without a fight in Veneto. Not to mention that any choice will have to pass through an agreement with Zaia, who, on the strength of the one million votes received by his list in 2020, will in fact have a sort of veto on the new candidate. Perhaps this is why it would be better for Fdi to bet on Liguria in the meantime. But not right away.