The summit

On the NATO summit Trump's doubts. And Zelensky deals with French Mirages

A two-day summit in Europe opens, fraught with uncertainty: the president does not confirm the US commitment to NATO Article 5, which provides for mutual defence

24 June 2025

La cerimonia del cambio della guardia si svolge all’ingresso della sede del Forum Mondiale durante il vertice NATO all’Aia, nei Paesi Bassi, il 24 giugno 2025. I Paesi Bassi ospitano il vertice NATO all’Aia il 24 e 25 giugno, il primo vertice del genere che si tiene nel Paese. EPA/FRANK DE ROO

3' min read

Key points

Summit outcome at risk
Article 5 node
The Zelensky 'question'

3' min read

Cyclone Trump hits the NATO summit and it will be revealed whether months of careful preparations to avoid psychodrama will bear fruit. Early indications are not entirely reassuring. The Donald, focused for days on the Iran-Israel crisis, seems to have found out that Spain got special treatment on the 5% target.

'There is a problem with Madrid, it does not agree... which is very unfair to the other allies,' he said on board Air Force One. The deal negotiated by Secretary General Mark Rutte, in short, may well be a diplomatic masterpiece but it will be useless if the US president tears it up. "The agreement is not a foregone conclusion," warned Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, not surprisingly.

Summit outcome at risk

The leaders' working session is scheduled for Wednesday morning - from 10.30 a.m. to 1.00 p.m., purposely shortened to avoid tears - and it is only with the seal of the heads of state and government that it can be said to be concluded. Of course, the final communiqué of the summit - which includes, in addition to the 5%, language on support for Ukraine and the threat posed by Russia - was approved on Sunday by the allied ambassadors and, as a rule, does not provide for second thoughts. But Trump will not let himself be bridled by diplomatic liturgy.

"I think it would be a very bad signal, not least from the European NATO members, if we are not able to make this decision," Kristersson emphasised during a meeting with international media, including Ansa, urging his peers to sign the pledge and invest in the defence of Europe.

The node of Article 5

Trump, on the other hand, has suggested more than once that America's participation in NATO depends on when allies are willing to spend. And when asked whether US support for Article 5 was really unwavering, he replied sibilantly: 'There are several definitions and I will provide an exact one, but I don't want to talk about it now from a plane'.

The Kremlin, of course, watches and takes notes. 'At Nato they had to turn Russia into a monster to get the decision on increasing the military budget to 5% passed,' commented Vladimir Putin's spokesman. But the certainty, indeed, is not yet there. "The understanding that puts the achievement of the capability targets agreed at Nato and military spending at 3.5 per cent on an equal footing applies to everyone, not just Spain, and that is what is creating tensions," explained a diplomatic source.

"The 5% de facto commitment is gone and Trump will have a solid foothold to reopen the negotiation at the leaders' table, with unpredictable outcomes," he warns. Rutte, as it happens, sent a private message to Trump that oozes adulation with every letter, precisely to reassure him of his impending 'success': 'Europe will pay its contribution in a big way, as it should, and it will be your victory,' Rutte argues.

The Zelensky 'question'

"You will achieve something that no other US president has managed to do in decades: it was not easy, but we managed to get everyone to commit to 5%". But how do we know the exact words used by the secretary-general? Simple.

The tycoon published everything on Truth. And this too could be a cross-signal. Opening the summit was the gala dinner offered to the 32 allies - plus the EU leaders, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and the New Zealand premier: Japan, South Korea and Australia all forfeited for ambiguous reasons - by the Dutch royals at the Huis ten Bosch palace. Will Trump take Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez head-on? Will he pull the ears of 'maga' Robert Fico, who is also reluctant to commit to spending the 5% by exploiting the Spanish exemption? Of his behaviour, one knows, there is no certainty.

Zelensky, after the dud he received at the G7, hopes for an official bilateral with him ('I will probably see him,' Trump indicated). The Ukrainian issue, central to the last NATO summits, has now been relegated to the background: although it remains crucial for the Europeans, and this can be seen in the choreography of events planned in The Hague, the US president is clearly interested in something else. And this is a further fracture in the much-vaunted transatlantic unity.

Zelensky himself later wrote in X: 'We have considered expanding our air fleet with additional Mirage aircraft, as well as co-production and investment in interceptor drones. Together with France, we are doing everything we can to protect the Ukrainian skies as best we can. We count on good decisions in the near future'. Zelensky's sentences come after a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the summit in The Hague 'to coordinate joint next steps and discuss diplomatic efforts to increase pressure on Russia'.