Turkey leads the way in port trade across the Mediterranean

Hormuz, new technologies and deglobalisation have reshaped shipping and logistics patterns. From this whirlwind that is still in full swing, the Mediterranean emerges stronger. It is carving out a sphere that manages to be simultaneously more stable, with consistent flows, yet still open to the oceans. Logistical resilience can no longer be regarded as a purely technical or sector-specific issue: it is a matter of national strategy. For Italia, this means investing simultaneously in ports, intermodal links, digital technologies, energy, administrative simplification and oversight capacity. This is the essence of the 182-page report ‘Italian Maritime Economy 2026’. SRM, a research unit affiliated with Intesa Sanpaolo and headed by Massimo Deandreis, describes a maritime economy that has entered a new phase, characterised by geopolitical instability, the energy transition, technological innovation and the redefinition of global shipping routes. International trade continues to depend crucially on the sea, but today maritime routes are no longer merely logistical infrastructure: they have become strategic assets, whose vulnerability directly affects growth, economic security, industrial competitiveness and the resilience of supply chains. In other words, we are currently living in the age of chokepoints – that is, maritime and logistical bottlenecks. Straits, canals, port hubs, energy corridors and even digital or manufacturing infrastructure concentrated in a few locations have become points where the relationship between interdependence and power is measured. Supply chains, despite what is often claimed, remain long and integrated, yet they are more exposed to regional crises, wars, protectionist pressures and the political exploitation of economic dependencies. Indeed, the report speaks of a veritable ‘weaponisation’ of flows – that is, the tendency of states to transform commercial, energy and logistical interdependence into a lever for strategic pressure.

In this context, the Mediterranean once again takes on a crucial central role. It is not merely a transit route, but a region where Europe, Asia and Africa converge, as well as a key hub for new infrastructure and trade corridors. For Italia, this scenario represents both a risk and an opportunity: a risk, because an economy so open and so dependent on maritime trade is immediately affected by disruptions to shipping routes; an opportunity, because its geographical position, port network and role in the Mediterranean can strengthen its geo-economic influence. Looking in more detail at the analysis of trade within the basin, there is, on the one hand, a slight decrease in services and an increase in the volumes transported and handled.

In 2025, intra-Mediterranean container traffic recorded an overall increase of 6.3 per cent compared with 2024, confirming a positive trend in the sector, although this was not uniform across the various countries. In terms of outbound flows, Turkey remains the leading regional market with over 1 million TEU (+0.7 per cent), accounting for around a third of the total: a figure that highlights the strength of a now mature system for domestic traffic, characterised by high volumes but more modest growth margins. Next come Egypt (502,000 TEU, +12%) and Spain (467,000 TEU, approximately +20%) show more expansive trends, signalling a strengthening of their role as regional logistics hubs, whilst Italia, with approximately 372,000 TEU (+5.7%), shows more moderate growth and a relatively stable position. The strong growth recorded by Libya and Tunisia, whilst significant in percentage terms, remains linked to absolute volumes that are still modest, though it does indicate signs of domestic trade activity. Inbound flows also exhibit a complex structure, with Turkey in the lead, followed by Israel, Morocco, Algeria, Spain and Italia, confirming an increasingly integrated system of intra-regional trade, particularly between the eastern and southern shores of the basin. Although these volumes account for a minority share of the total movements in individual port systems — amounting to around 11 per cent for Turkey and 5 per cent for Italia and the Mediterranean coast of Spain — they are of significant strategic importance. Intra-Med traffic, in fact, generates regular and recurring flows, characterised by geographical proximity and high frequency, helping to stabilise the utilisation of port infrastructure and strengthen economic interdependencies between the countries in the region. Furthermore, such traffic has played a crucial role during recent periods of crisis in the global logistics system, when the main maritime routes were diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. In this context, intra-Mediterranean links have helped to mitigate disruptions to global flows, ensuring greater operational continuity and strengthening the resilience of the Mediterranean port system. Overall, therefore, intra-Mediterranean trade is not a marginal segment, but a structural element of the regional logistics system, fundamental both to operational stability and to strengthening economic integration between the various shores of the basin.

The global maritime system is entering a phase that is structurally different from the past: shipping routes are no longer simply logistical corridors, but strategic assets exposed to growing geopolitical risks. Tensions along key choke points and the fragmentation of the international balance of power are forcing a reorganisation of supply chains with a focus on resilience, with direct effects on costs, transit times and the configuration of trade flows. In this context, world trade is not declining, but is being redistributed along increasingly regional and multipolar routes, supported by new agreements and the development of alternative corridors that compete with traditional routes. At the same time, the shipping sector is consolidating its oligopolistic structure, whilst alliances and M&A operations are strengthening the control of major operators over global networks. Competition is thus shifting from scale to performance: it is no longer scale alone that determines leadership, but the ability to combine connectivity with operational efficiency. Looking ahead, the competitiveness of maritime systems will therefore depend on the ability to integrate ports, infrastructure and value chains within a systemic framework. In this context, Italia enjoys a significant geographical advantage, but making the most of this requires greater logistical integration, infrastructure investment and a clear positioning strategy within the new balance of international trade. An entire chapter of the report is, of course, devoted to Hormuz. The strait is described primarily as an energy chokepoint, but with implications that extend beyond oil and gas: it affects the container, automotive, chemical, fertiliser, critical materials and semiconductor sectors. Before the crisis, significant volumes of crude oil, refined products, chemicals and vehicles passed through this Middle Eastern hub; the collapse in traffic and route diversions have increased bunkering costs, insurance premiums, port congestion and freight rate volatility, with knock-on effects for the Mediterranean as well.

The discussion then broadens to Europe. According to the report, the EU has relied heavily on its regulatory power, but is lagging behind in terms of energy, financial, infrastructure and defence integration. European autonomy cannot mean isolation, but rather diversification of supplies, partners and routes. For this reason, the management and development of logistics hubs, corridors and dry ports become part of a genuine industrial and strategic policy. Projects such as IMEC, the Global Gateway and, implicitly, Italia’s role as a Euro-Mediterranean platform all fall within this framework.