UN: Global temperatures set to rise by 2.8 degrees by the end of the century. The United States is driving up greenhouse gas emissions
The Environment Panel’s report confirms that, given the measures taken by governments to date, the safety thresholds identified by science remain out of reach. The US has accounted for 70 per cent of the increase in CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels
The thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement and by science to limit the damage caused by climate change – both the safer 1.5-degree limit and the 2-degree limit – are out of reach: by the end of the century, global temperatures will be up to 2.8 degrees higher than the pre-industrial average. These are the findings of the report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), published just a few weeks ahead of the World Climate Conference, COP31, to be held in Turkey.
Mathematics and politics
According to the latest calculations, based on current policies – that is, the measures actually adopted by governments, rather than mere announcements – the temperature would rise by 2.8 degrees. Even if governments were to honour the promises made in their national climate plans, the increase would still be 2.6 degrees. Last year, estimates indicated warming of between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees.
Following ‘decades of insufficient climate action’, particularly on the part of the wealthy G20 nations, the report therefore confirms that it will be impossible to limit global warming to below the 1.5-degree threshold, which could be structurally exceeded within the decade. As always, climate scientists also offer an alternative scenario, in which it is still possible to turn things around. After all, they emphasise, every decimal point counts, because it increases the risk of extreme weather events, negative repercussions on global food production and rising inflation.
However, it would be necessary to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 45 per cent by 2035 – a reduction three times greater than what is possible under current national climate plans (which range from 11 to 15 per cent). Even so, the temperature rise would be 1.8 degrees, falling back to 1.5 by the end of the century. “This is not the time to throw in the towel,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
But this is a mathematical calculation, an equation which fails to take into account what is, ultimately, the most important variable: political will – the very thing that has been lacking so far (not to mention that a significant leap forward is needed in removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, progress on which has so far fallen far short of expectations).
