EU letter on Unicredit, 'rules violated, risk of revocation of Dpcm'.

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) -  Unicredit and Banco Bpm once again remain special observers at Piazza Affari, while waiting for the decision that the institute of Piazza Gae Aulenti will take about the takeover bid on the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna, especially after the letter that the European Union sent to the Italian government, criticising, albeit in a preliminary way. the exercise of the so-called golden power. "The Commission has come to the preliminary conclusion that Italy has violated Article 21 of the Merger Regulation," is written in the missive, which thus "invites Italy to submit its observations on the matter," giving 20 working days from receipt of the letter itself, published by Repubblica.it and the Milano Finanza website. "Should the preliminary conclusion be confirmed," it is further written, "the Commission could adopt a decision (...) ordering it to revoke the decree without delay. In any case, yesterday Palazzo Chigi had immediately let it be known that 'in a collaborative and constructive spirit it will respond to the clarifications requested, just as it has already done in the courts before the TAR'.

In fact, in the past few days, the Regional Administrative Court of Lazio had also expressed its opinion, annulling only two of the four prescriptions imposed by the golden power: the one that requires Banco Bpm and UniCredit in Italy not to reduce the loan/deposit ratio for a period of five years, with the objective of increasing loans to domestic households and SMEs, exclusively with reference to the time profile, and the one relating to maintaining the level of the project finance portfolio. On the other hand, it should be considered that, as pointed out by the Regional Administrative Court and by Unicredit itself, the Court does not have full jurisdiction over the Golden power prescription requiring the cessation of activities, or the sale of assets in Russia, since this issue is the prerogative of the ECB.

At this point, however, there is still the rebus over Unicredit's takeover bid on Banco Bpm, namely whether it will go ahead or whether it will be withdrawn by the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti or suspended again by Consob. Tomorrow, according to rumours, Unicredit's board of directors will meet to take decisions on the matter. Analysts at Equita (the company has also been Unicredit's advisor in recent months) point out that Europe's position would seem to be in Unicredit's favour, but in any case it is necessary to reckon with the timing, which instead plays against it. Considering that Italy has twenty days to provide the response to Brussels, and even assuming a subsequent possible amendment to the DPCM, the latter would arrive once the ops is over, given that the last day to adhere to the offer was set for 23 July. Unicredit's CEO Andrea Orcel, however, was clear and repeatedly reiterated that a stable regulatory framework is an indispensable condition for Unicredit to proceed with the offer on Banco Bpm. Equita wonders whether Consob will once again take the field to suspend the operation and 'facilitate possible interlocutions by Unicredit with the government and the shareholders of Banco Bpm'. In the meantime, it should be borne in mind that Banco Bpm shares are trading at a premium of between 8 and 9% to Unicredit's implied offer price, which is therefore not very attractive. In the background also remains the interest of Credit Agricole, which intends to rise above 20% in the bank's capital, from the current 19.8%. The French institution has made it clear that its objective is to strengthen its investment, without wishing to "acquire or exercise control over Banco Bpm", keeping its shareholding below the compulsory opa threshold set at 25%. But the stock exchange is closely watching the French group's moves.