Visa trends

“Up to 20 per cent of visa applications are fraudulent. Bots and AI to ensure transparency in the processing of applications and security at the borders”

Interview with Folco de Luca Gabrielli, VFS Global’s advisor for Italia: ‘International mobility will remain a strategic priority for governments, economies and societies’. Countries will need to continue to attract tourism, investment and talent, whilst maintaining high standards of security, and “among the most significant innovations, I see the gradual roll-out of e-Visas, interoperability between government databases and the use of digital identity”. Meanwhile, from a geopolitical perspective, “the Mediterranean region will become increasingly attractive”

Folco de Luca Gabrielli, advisor Italia di VFS Global

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Increasing cross-border mobility and, due to geopolitical tensions, sudden changes in migration flows. And, consequently, in the management of consular visa issuance. Technological innovations are on the horizon, such as the European Entry/Exit System. The future of mobility will depend on digital, integrated and secure processes that balance two essential priorities: protecting borders whilst making travel simpler, more reliable and more efficient for citizens and institutions. “Our role,” explains Folco de Luca Gabrielli, an adviser to VFS Global’s Italia account management team and former Italian ambassador to Singapore and Malaysia, “is to support governments in managing the administrative aspects of the visa application process, whilst providing flexible and secure technological solutions that enable consular authorities to respond more efficiently to ongoing developments.” Since 2007, VFS Global has been processing 12 million biometric transactions a year, with 4,200 service centres across 169 countries. We therefore asked de Luca Gabrielli about the trends in the sector and the technological developments in the pipeline.

What new technologies have you adopted to speed up the management of workflows?

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‘The evolution of international mobility and the growing complexity of the geopolitical landscape are making the use of innovative technologies to support the management of passenger flows increasingly strategic. Today, the challenge lies in ensuring greater efficiency, security and transparency, whilst safeguarding personal data. In this context, the responsible use of artificial intelligence and digital technologies is a key factor. VFS Global was among the first organisations to adopt a responsible approach to AI, ensuring that its use complies with data protection regulations and remains subject to continuous human oversight. The initiatives we have developed to support our government clients include generative AI chatbots operating 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, on websites dedicated to Italia, and, in certain specific cases, a mobile-only appointment booking system with liveness detection. This technology, implemented in selected markets, verifies the applicant’s identity during the booking process, ensuring that appointments are booked exclusively by genuine applicants and helping to combat fraudulent activity and misuse of the system. In some markets, it has been established that around 20 per cent of the total volume of requests comes from fraudulent intermediaries booking appointments, which highlights the importance of robust identity verification and appointment management controls. We have also developed an automated digital waiting list that allocates appointment slots strictly in order of registration, further strengthening fairness, transparency and security in the appointment allocation process.”

Since 2007, you have processed an average of 12 million biometric transactions per year. What are your expectations for the next five years, both in terms of volume and developments?

“International travel has seen a strong recovery following the pandemic, and we expect demand to continue to grow over the next five years. This growth will be driven not only by tourism — which remains a significant sector, with spending by foreign travellers in Italia set to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2025 according to the Bank of Italy — but also by mobility linked to education, employment, business and investment. In the coming years, we anticipate a further increase in volumes and a gradual evolution of mobility management processes, partly thanks to the introduction of European systems such as the Entry/Exit System (EES) and the growing digitalisation of procedures.”

We have lived through the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by the war in Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East. Beyond the individual countries directly involved, what impact have these events had on the visa sector?

‘Recent years have shown just how closely international mobility is linked to geopolitical developments. Events such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East have affected travel flows, temporarily altering travel habits and government priorities. Our experience shows, however, that the impact of geopolitical turmoil on international mobility is usually temporary. Before the war, Ukraine was one of VFS Global’s most important markets, with around two million visa applications from Ukrainian citizens processed globally each year, and Russia was also a significant market. Travel flows tend to redistribute rather than disappear, whilst demand for travel for tourism, education, work and business remains structurally strong. In this context, governments need operational models that are flexible enough to adapt rapidly to changing demand. Consular authorities retain full responsibility for visa decisions at all times, but the support of operators specialising in the management of administrative tasks enables fluctuations in travel flows to be managed more effectively, whilst maintaining service continuity, operational efficiency and security.”

Do you think that periods of political instability are a factor we will have to contend with in the coming years?

“International mobility will remain a strategic priority for governments, economies and societies. Countries will need to continue to attract tourists, talent, investment and skills, whilst maintaining high standards of border security.”

The figures highlight the growing appeal of Mediterranean countries, both within and outside the Schengen area. Is this a passing trend or one set to become even more pronounced?

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‘I believe this is a trend that is set to become more established. The Mediterranean region is a natural crossroads between Europe, Africa and the Middle East and continues to attract tourism, investment, students and professionals. Alongside traditional tourism, in fact, we are seeing growth in mobility linked to business, education, exchange programmes and major international events. Countries such as Italia continue to benefit from this trend thanks to their cultural heritage, the quality of their higher education provision, their productive sector and the growing role that the Mediterranean is playing in the global economic balance.”

As a specialist, what technological innovations at government level could further streamline the visa issuance process?

‘I believe the future lies in an increasingly digital and interoperable ecosystem. Among the most significant innovations, I see the gradual roll-out of e-Visas, the complete digitisation of documentation, interoperability between government databases, the use of digital identity and biometrics for faster and more secure verification, as well as the use of artificial intelligence as an operational support tool. AI should not replace the decisions of the competent authorities, but should help to reduce administrative processing times, identify any anomalies and improve the quality of service.”

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