US attack on Iran, what Italy risks. Military repositioned to avoid collateral damage

The US attack on Iran changes the scenario of the crisis in the Middle East. But this will not involve Italian soldiers in the conflict. On this, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto had already clarified the position on 19 June: 'Italy certainly does not plan to go to war with Iran. I don't think there will ever be Italian soldiers or planes that will be able to bomb Iran, this seems obvious and clear to me. Not only because it is constitutionally impossible, but the will is not there either'. The greatest risks are for possible attacks on US bases in Italy. Then there are the Italian soldiers deployed on peace missions in the Middle East, who could be subject to retaliation as allies of the US. The most serious impact could be on the economy, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a third of the world's oil trade passes, were to be blocked by Iran or its allies.

In light of the crisis in the Middle East, in order to avoid any collateral damage, Italian military personnel engaged in operational theatres abroad have been repositioned. This was explained by the Chief of Defence Staff, General Luciano Portolano. "The security measures adopted essentially consist in repositioning our forces present in particularly sensitive areas or in the vicinity of possible US targets," the general pointed out, recalling that "for some days, in agreement with Minister Crosetto, I had given clear indications to the inter-force top command to put in place protective measures to ensure the safety of personnel in our missions and operations and to pre-alert our contingents in the area that, in any case, are not involved and, as far as we know, do not constitute a target of Iranian action.

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has already announced that a number of Italian soldiers who were in Baghgad because of the risk of retaliation against a base where there were also Americans have been let 'back in. They returned via Kuwait'. The closest to the front line are in fact the soldiers of the Italian contingent engaged in Iraq and Kuwait: a total of about 1,100 men. In Lebanon, then there are also the approximately 1,100 Italian soldiers taking part in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mission. The Andrea Doria missile-launching destroyer (crew of 200) is then engaged in the European mission Apsides, which faces missiles and drones from Yemen by escorting merchant shipping. Military personnel are also present in Sinai, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Targets of terrorist attacks could become the centres of the US presence in Italy. It is no coincidence that the intelligence community has been on the alert for days: at the Ministry of the Interior there was a meeting of the CASA (Strategic Anti-Terrorism Analysis Committee) and the CNOSP (National Committee for Public Order and Security) chaired by Minister Matteo Piantedosi was convened at the Viminale, with the participation of the top intelligence and police forces. In the crosshairs of terrorist attacks could end up primarily the US bases that could be used in the type of operation that the Trump administration is carrying out in Iran. The only base in Italy capable of supporting the take-off of the Stealth B2 Spirit strategic bombers used by the US Air Force in Iran is that of Aviano (Friuli-Venezia Giulia) which, however, together with that of Sigonella (Sicily), is a NATO base and therefore subject to the rules of engagement of the Atlantic Alliance. The only base at the complete disposal of the US Air Force in our country is Camp Darby, in Tuscany, but it is unable to support the take-off of Stealth aircraft because its runway is too short. While the declaration of war requires a resolution of Parliament, the authorisation of overflights and the use of military bases by foreign armed forces falls within the competence of the Ministry of Defence, which informs the Parliament. In Italy there are about 12,000 US military personnel: mainly concentrated in Aviano, Sigonella and Camp Darby, as well as in Vicenza, Gaeta (Lazio) and Naples.

The Middle East area is crucial for the world's energy supply. An escalation of the conflict, due to US involvement, could lead to a blockade or significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage for almost a third of the world's oil trade and a fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This would cause oil and gas prices to soar, resulting in higher prices for Italian companies and households, increased production and transport costs, and a negative impact on inflation and purchasing power. It is estimated that 40.7 per cent of Italian energy imports come from areas at risk. But through the Strait of Hormuz and the nearby Red Sea (where the Yemeni armed group of the Houthi, supported by Iran, operates) also pass almost 200 billion a year of Italy's interchange (import plus export) with the rest of the world, almost 17% of the total.