US tariffs, 30% tariffs set Italy's growth to zero in 2025

In the medium to long term, the resilience typical of Italian companies will be able to absorb the blow of US tariffs. "The problem is one year from now, especially for sectors that are more exposed to the United States, such as pharmaceuticals, agribusiness or some mechanical engineering sectors," observes Marco Daviddi, managing partner of EY, which has just published the second edition of the EY Parthenon Bulletin, in which the possible impact of protectionist tariffs on our country's economy is also estimated.

The possible confirmation of tariffs at 30% as of 1 August next would lead, according to EY estimates, to a cumulative reduction in GDP of 1.4%, effectively cancelling out the expected growth of 0.6% (set to rise to +0.8% in 2026), with a negative impact estimated at just under EUR 30 billion between 2025 and 2026. If, on the other hand, tariffs were to be confirmed at 20%, in line with what was communicated in early April, the economic impact is estimated at around EUR 20 billion, a 65% drop compared to expected growth (-0.9% cumulative between 2025 and 2026). The analysis does not include a stiam of the impact of possible tariffs at 10% because, according to EY's forecasts, the amount of tariffs is unlikely to fall below 20%.

"Some sectors will be directly impacted," adds Daviddi, "I am thinking of those with the largest export volumes to the US, such as pharmaceuticals, food & beverages, and some mechanical engineering sectors. But it is clear that if such a dynamic were to be triggered, the consequences and effects would fall on all sectors, because the situation would curb the propensity to invest on the part of companies and the propensity to consume on the part of private individuals'.

The effects of tariffs will also be transversal geographically: while it is true that Italy, together with Germany, could be particularly affected due to its strong industrial vocation and equally strong export vocation, EY's analyses (conducted at European level) estimate a homogeneous impact in all EU nations.

"Despite this complex and highly uncertain scenario, Italian companies are nevertheless demonstrating a remarkable ability to adapt," Daviddi points out. "In recent months we have observed a great deal of reflection, awareness and action on the part of companies, which have not stood idly by or waited for government decisions. This is confirmed by some data relating to the first half of 2025: EY noted a significant growth in foreign investments, with a 17% increase in announced deals (143 compared to 122 in the same period in 2024), but also an increase in value, which rose from EUR 7.1 billion in the first six months of last year, to EUR 13.5 billion.