Furniture, US tariffs dampen global growth in 2026
The Centro studi per l'industria leggera forecasts a 1% increase in the market. Italy confirms fourth world exporter
Key points
The optimism of the beginning of the year has given way to the realism of a global market dominated by uncertainty, both in terms of geopolitics and trade. Thus, while Csil's World Furniture Outlook forecast a +1.4% recovery in consumption in 2025, by mid-year the estimates had already turned negative, thanks to US President Donald Trump's repeated and contradictory announcements of tariffs.
Unprecedented uncertainty
The truth, as always, lies somewhere in between, and the new report published by Centro studi industria leggera now speaks of a slight growth, which will not be enough to compensate for the declines in 2023 and the substantial stagnation in 2024, in a scenario that, in fact, reflects a market lacking dynamism, due precisely to the uncertainty, which Csil analysts describe as 'unprecedented'.
The main cause of this uncertainty is the unpredictability of trade policies and tariffs, which seems set to continue. Preliminary CISL estimates for 2025 therefore indicate 'very slight growth in world furniture trade compared to the previous year, at current values in US dollars'.
However, the report says, the effects of tariffs will become evident from 2026 onwards, forcing the prospects of a solid recovery to be postponed once again. "Future prospects are negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty, which remains high in the absence of clear and durable agreements between trading partners," Csil analysts write.
The Impact of US Tariffs on Exporting Countries
While the picture of the major furniture importing and exporting countries remains largely unchanged - with the United States dominating the first ranking and China leading the second - the details of this picture have changed profoundly. First of all, China experienced a sharp drop in exports in 2022 and 2023, followed by a slight recovery in 2024, which, however, came to a standstill in 2025, bringing furniture exports back to 2023 levels. And the decline is set to become more pronounced in the near future, given the slowdown of exports in its main outlet market - the United States.
