US elections: 50 million Americans have already voted, almost a record

About 50 million have already voted, almost a third of the total 2020 electorate, 155 million or 66% of the eligible voters, an all-time high. According to the Election Lab of the University of Florida, the number of voters reached 47,482,355 as of 28 October, to be exact. In person, using early voting in special ballot boxes in states where it is available, 24,298,083 million ballots were deposited. By mail, 23,257,476 more arrived.

Passions and political polarisation are already evident in the run-up to the vote. The numbers are second only to the absolute record in early or postal voting set four years ago at the height of the pandemic. Ballots deposited or sent before polling day then accounted for about 70 per cent of the total. Those votes are expected to approach that previous high again today: a total of more than 66 million Americans have applied for postal ballots alone, three times as many as have voted so far. And in the seven swing states, the most contested and perhaps decisive, the numbers are now close to the 2020 numbers.

The sprint of early voting offers itself to multiple readings. The US elections could actually already be decided before 5 November, given the numbers of so-called early voting. A central role could be played by the organisational machinery of the two parties and their ability to mobilise their voters and bring them to the polls, an exercise in which the Democrats have excelled in the past but which with Trump has also seen the Republicans shine, capturing Americans previously with a low propensity to vote. Although it is impossible to guess the outcome until the official count, which could take hours and even days as some states, such as Pennsylvania, only count non-personal ballots once they have finished counting the ballots cast in person on election day.

The second lesson is that the outcome proves particularly complex to predict: unlike the recent past, when the Republicans led by Donald Trump had denounced early and postal voting as the mother of all frauds, leaving this battlefield to the Democrats, this time they encouraged their supporters to vote as soon as possible to maximise their support. In rallies Trump always attacks his opponents as frauds, an argument belied by the facts, but celebrates early voting by his supporters as a show of strength.

The third lesson comes from the details of who has voted to date. The statistics, it must be said, are partial because not all states publish information on party affiliation or other demographic indications. Party identification also does not ensure presidential votes: Democrat Kamala Harris courts moderate Republicans, Republican Donald Trump invites popular and conservative Democrats to support him.